Russia forum hears report envisioning nuclear use and annexations in 'good' scenario

Russia's annual economic forum in St Petersburg has opened with a presentation that set out a future scenario for the country in which nuclear weapons are used and Ukrainian cities are annexed. Konstantin Malofeev, founder of the Russian Orthodox media network Tsargrad, presented a "Russia 2050" report at the event, which was attended by Vladimir Putin and business figures from across the globe. The report described a "good" outcome for the next 25 years as one in which Russia secures "a clear image of victory in the ideological war" through nuclear weapons use, annexes Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv, and sees the European Union collapse.

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The report also set out other paths. A "bad" scenario would see Russia lose the war in Ukraine and be "colonised" by 2050, while an "inertial" outcome would lead to "American and Chinese hegemony" and, according to the presentation, Russia using nuclear weapons by 2036. Alexander Dugin, who co-authored the report, appeared on stage with Malofeev.

Dugin said the unpublished report had already been presented at the Russian Ministry of Defence's General Staff Academy. Malofeev has previously supported the annexation of Crimea and funded efforts to destabilise Ukraine, including Russia's 2014 Donbas operation. He is sanctioned by the UK for acting in support of the destabilisation of eastern Ukraine, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office says he has faced a criminal investigation into his alleged support for separatists in the region.

Dugin is also sanctioned by the UK, US and EU, and the UK says he has been involved in destabilising Ukraine or promoting policies that undermine its territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence. The remarks come at a time when the war in Ukraine remains central to Russia's political and strategic debate. A report presented at a major economic forum, rather than a closed security meeting, gives the language wider visibility and places it in front of domestic and international business audiences.

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The inclusion of nuclear weapons in the "good" and "inertial" scenarios is likely to draw attention because it links long-term political projections with the use of strategic weapons. The forum opened in St Petersburg on Wednesday, and the city was hit by a Ukrainian drone strike the night before it began. Governor Alexander Beglov said infrastructure objects in three districts were hit.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the drones struck several military targets, including the Petersburg Oil Terminal, although the supplied material does not confirm damage beyond the governor's statement. The timing adds to the security backdrop around the event and underlines the continuing spillover from the war into Russian territory. What remains unclear is whether the report reflects official policy or is instead a political projection from figures close to the Kremlin.

The supplied material does not show any direct response from the Russian government to the presentation. It is also not clear how widely the report will be circulated beyond the forum, despite Dugin's claim that it has already been shown at the General Staff Academy.

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