World Steel Association forecasts flat global demand in 2026, rebound in 2027

The World Steel Association has published its Short Range Outlook for steel demand in 2026 and 2027, forecasting global demand will stay essentially flat next year at 1,722 Mt. The group said demand is then expected to return to growth in 2027, rising 1.7% to 1,752 Mt.

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Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said the outlook set out in April still holds, but the recovery is proving slower and more gradual than expected. He said global demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than grow modestly, and to rise 1.7% in 2027 instead of 2.2%.

He said almost all of the revision is "a China story." Outside China, demand is still forecast to grow by 1.5% this year and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027. He said the GCC is expected to see demand fall by about 11% in 2026, describing the shift as a deferral of demand while project awards, construction starts and financing decisions are pushed back amid unresolved security conditions and instability in the Middle East.

Worldsteel forecasts a rebound of 11.3% in 2027, taking regional demand back to its 2025 level.

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