Australia rejects backup plan as AUKUS submarine concerns grow

Australia's defence minister has rejected calls for a backup plan if the AUKUS submarine programme fails, saying the country must stay the course on what he described as an enormous task. Richard Marles made the remarks at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security Conference and Exhibition in Perth, where he was questioned about the pace and risks of the long-running plan. He said changing course again would amount to giving up on the goal of acquiring a new fleet of long-range submarines.

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Marles said Australia had no "plan B" and that "chopping and changing" would leave the country in an unthinkable position. The comments come amid growing concern about whether the programme can deliver on time, with analysts and defence industry figures warning that Australia could be left without submarines if the project slips further. The row has also been sharpened by uncertainty over the ageing Collins-class fleet, which Australia is trying to keep in service while AUKUS moves forward.

AUKUS is Australia's largest defence project and is expected to cost up to $368 billion over three decades. Under the plan, US and UK nuclear-powered submarines are due to begin rotating through Australia from 2027, with US Virginia-class submarines intended for sale to Australia in the 2030s. Australian-built AUKUS-class submarines are then expected to enter service in the 2040s.

The scale and timing of those milestones help explain why the programme has become a central issue in defence planning and public debate. The stakes are significant because the submarine plan sits at the centre of Australia's long-term military posture in the Indo-Pacific. The country is seeking to replace and expand undersea capability at a time when regional security concerns are rising and defence spending is under scrutiny.

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The conference remarks also reflect wider anxiety about supply-chain and delivery risks in major defence programmes, especially when capability gaps could emerge before new platforms arrive. The concerns are not limited to Australia. The supplied material notes that the former Australian ambassador to the United States, Joe Hockey, said he was nervous about the planned delivery of Virginia-class submarines.

It also records comments from Australia's Chief of Navy about China's naval flotilla entering the Tasman Sea last year, which he said stirred anger in New Zealand and helped build political support for higher defence spending on both sides of the Tasman. Those references underline how AUKUS is being watched not only as a procurement project but as a test of regional deterrence planning. What remains unclear is whether the programme can keep to its current timetable and whether the Collins-class fleet can be sustained long enough to bridge any delay.

The immediate question is how Australia will manage the gap between present capability and the first expected rotations of US and UK submarines from 2027. Further scrutiny is likely to focus on delivery risk, industrial capacity and whether political support holds if milestones slip.

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