WHO says current Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda has lower fatality rate

The World Health Organization says the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a case fatality rate of under 25%, lower than in recent outbreaks in the country. In an update dated 24 May and posted on 27 May, the agency said it had recorded more than 1,000 suspected and confirmed Ebola cases in the DRC since the outbreak was declared in mid-May. It also said one person had died from Ebola in neighbouring Uganda, where six infections have been confirmed.

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The WHO update said there had been 10 confirmed Ebola deaths in the DRC, alongside 223 suspected deaths linked to the virus. It put the case fatality rate at 24.6% among suspected cases and 9.8% among confirmed cases. The agency said the true spread of the virus is likely wider than the figures currently show, because it may have been circulating undetected for some time.

The current outbreak is being caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola. WHO said there are no approved vaccines or treatments for that variant, unlike the Zaire strain that has been behind most previous outbreaks in the DRC. The agency also noted that the fatality rate can change as an outbreak develops, because earlier detection and treatment can improve survival.

The figures matter because the outbreak has already crossed an international border and is affecting two countries in central Africa. The DRC has experienced repeated Ebola outbreaks since the disease was first identified there in 1976, and the current case count suggests a significant public health response is still needed. Lower fatality rates do not reduce the need for containment, especially when the scale of transmission is still being established.

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The WHO said the current outbreak is different from many earlier DRC outbreaks, which were often linked to the more lethal Zaire strain. It said the Bundibugyo strain had also caused outbreaks in the DRC in 2007 and 2012, with fatality rates then ranging from around 30% to 50%. The agency's emergency alert and response director has said early referral and early care can save lives, underlining the importance of rapid detection and treatment.

What remains unclear is the full extent of transmission in the DRC and whether more cases will be confirmed in Uganda or elsewhere. The WHO has warned that the virus may have been spreading under the radar for weeks or months, which could complicate containment efforts. The next developments to watch are updated case numbers, the pace of contact tracing and whether health authorities can identify and isolate new infections quickly.

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