WFP warns US-Iran war is worsening food insecurity in fragile countries

The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that the war between the United States and Iran is driving sharp food price increases in fragile countries and pushing millions closer to hunger. In an analysis published on Friday, the agency said the conflict's effect on oil prices is having "profound implications" for global food security. It said the spillover is already visible in countries with weak economies and high dependence on imports.

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The WFP said its March warning that 45 million people could fall into acute food shortages if oil prices stayed at $100 a barrel by the end of June was beginning to materialise. It said global food prices, measured by the Food and Agriculture Organization price index, had only risen slightly so far, but that substantial increases were already being felt in fragile countries. The agency said the crisis was generating significant spillovers through fuel costs, food prices, income shocks and trade disruptions.

The report said households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka were among the most seriously affected. It said higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade were putting mounting pressure on families in those countries. In Somalia, the WFP said 6.5 million people, or roughly a third of the population, are expected to face severe hunger in 2026.

It also said 17.4 million people in Afghanistan could be affected, with an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia and a similar number in Afghanistan unable to afford a basic food basket. The warning matters because it shows how a military conflict between two states can quickly affect food access far beyond the battlefield. The WFP said the continued near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil markets and stopped tankers from completing their journeys.

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That has helped keep fuel and transport costs elevated, which can feed through into food prices, import bills and household incomes in countries already facing instability. The agency's assessment also points to the scale of pre-existing vulnerability in the countries it named. In Somalia, it projected that almost 60 percent of households could be unable to afford essential needs in 2026, compared with 47 percent in 2025.

In Afghanistan, it said up to 2.3 million people could become food insecure, adding to 13.8 million people who were already food insecure before the latest shock. Those figures suggest the conflict is intensifying an existing humanitarian strain rather than creating a problem from scratch. The war began on 28 February, according to the report, and indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled with no clear end in sight.

The WFP said the conflict's effects are now moving through fuel, food and trade channels at the same time, making the outlook harder to contain. What remains unclear is how long oil markets will stay disrupted and whether talks will resume soon enough to ease pressure on food-importing countries.

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