Iran and Houthi warnings raise fresh concern over Bab al-Mandab shipping lane

Iran has warned that the Bab al-Mandab Strait could be blocked if Israel escalates military action against Iran, while Yemen's Houthi rebels said Israel-affiliated vessels are again active targets in the Red Sea. The statements, issued on 8 June, put renewed focus on a narrow maritime corridor linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The route is one of the world's most important shipping passages and sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

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Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the "resistance axis" had the capability to shut both the Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz if regional hostilities intensify. In a post on X, he warned that the security of the Bab al-Mandab should not lead the enemy into "a miscalculation". On the same day, the Houthis said they had launched a new attack on Israel and declared that Israel-affiliated vessels were once again legitimate targets in the Red Sea.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait narrows to about 29 kilometres at its tightest point and connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. It is a key gateway to the Suez Canal and a route used by traffic between Europe and Asia. The latest warnings matter because any disruption there can quickly affect shipping schedules, insurance costs and fuel prices.

They also raise the risk of wider maritime insecurity in a corridor already exposed to conflict-linked attacks. The comments come against the backdrop of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in late 2023, when the group targeted vessels in the Red Sea in response to Israel's war in Gaza. According to the supplied material, the Houthis launched more than 100 attacks at that time, killing at least nine mariners and sinking four ships.

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Many of the vessels hit had only tangential or no actual ties to Israel, which broadened the impact on international trade. Those attacks forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels, adding to fuel, insurance and crew-related costs. The disruption also affected the Suez Canal, which is a major source of foreign currency for Egypt.

The supplied material says roughly $1 trillion in goods passed through the Red Sea annually before the war, underlining the scale of the corridor now under renewed threat. The strait has remained navigable throughout the current war, but the latest statements suggest the risk environment is worsening. Saudi Arabia is also said to be relying on its East-West Pipeline to export oil through the Red Sea region, showing how regional states have already sought alternatives to vulnerable sea lanes.

What remains unclear is whether the threats will translate into new attacks or whether they are intended mainly as deterrent signals. The next developments to watch are any confirmed maritime incidents, official responses from regional governments, and whether shipping operators alter routes again.

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