SIPRI says India's nuclear stockpile rose to about 190 warheads
India's nuclear stockpile is estimated to have risen to about 190 warheads as of January 2026, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The report also says India has deployed 12 nuclear warheads at present and may be changing how it handles some of its weapons during peacetime. It suggests the country could be moving towards mating some warheads with missiles, rather than keeping them fully separate from launchers.
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The assessment says India's total stockpile was about 180 warheads a year earlier, indicating a modest increase over 2025. It also says India continued developing new types of nuclear delivery systems during the year. The report adds that India's recent use of canisterised missiles and sea-based deterrence patrols points to a possible shift in posture, although it does not say this has been confirmed as a formal policy change.
The report places India's posture in a wider regional context, saying Pakistan's nuclear warhead stockpile is thought to have remained stable at around 170 warheads as of January 2026. Pakistan is described as continuing to develop its nascent nuclear triad, with land and air capabilities already established and sea-based capabilities still in the development and testing phase. The report also says Pakistan's focus in 2025 was on new delivery systems and accumulation of fissile material.
The findings matter because they point to changes in how nuclear forces may be managed in South Asia, where India and Pakistan have long maintained competing deterrence postures. The report says that, at the start of 2026, nine countries together possessed about 12,187 nuclear weapons, with 9,745 in military stockpiles and considered potentially operationally available. It also notes that submarine-based nuclear delivery systems have been proliferating, especially among the four nuclear-armed states in the Indo-Pacific.
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India has long been understood to keep its warheads separate from deployed launchers in peacetime, so any move towards mating warheads with missiles would be a notable shift. The report says India and China may now occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime. It also says China is in the middle of a significant modernisation and expansion of its nuclear arsenal, though the supplied material does not give a full updated figure in this row.
What remains unclear is whether India has formally changed its nuclear deployment doctrine or whether the report is identifying an emerging operational pattern. The report says India may have started to deploy a small number of nuclear warheads on a single SSBN conducting occasional deterrence patrols, but it does not provide further detail on the vessel or the timing. The next developments to watch are any official response, any clarification of India's deployment practices, and whether other regional powers adjust their own posture in response.
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