Lowy report says China's missile reach against Australia is growing

A new Lowy Institute analysis says China already has the ability to threaten Australia's trade routes, subsea cables and critical infrastructure, while also developing a "real and growing" capacity to hit the Australian mainland with missiles. The report describes Beijing's military build-up as a "historic shift" with sharp consequences for Australia's security. It says the threat would become much greater if China secured a military base in the Pacific or developed longer-range bomber or drone platforms able to reach Australia.

Sponsored

The analysis says China can already strike northern Australia with its DF-26 missile system if launched from its artificially built islands in the South China Sea. It also says Chinese ballistic missiles launched from ships and submarines could reach Australia. The report argues that Beijing can already disrupt Australian trade routes through choke points in the Indonesian archipelago, sever undersea cables and carry out cyber operations against critical infrastructure.

One of the report's co-authors, Sam Roggeveen, said Australia needed to keep a close watch on China's growing ability to project power in the region. He said that even if relations with China were good, Australia could not know how the wider strategic environment might change. The report does not predict conflict or say Beijing is likely to use military force against Australia.

Instead, it focuses on the scale and direction of China's military capabilities and what that means for Australian planning. The findings matter because they point to a shift in the regional balance that goes beyond a single weapons system. Australia's security debate has increasingly centred on how to protect sea lanes, communications links and infrastructure that are vital to trade and daily life.

Sponsored

The report suggests those vulnerabilities are already present, even before any further expansion of China's reach. It also implies that future Chinese access to a Pacific base could significantly alter the strategic picture. The analysis places China's military expansion in the context of a broader and rapid build-up that the institute says has already changed the security environment.

It highlights the DF-26 as part of a wider set of capabilities that can affect Australia from a distance. The report also underlines the importance of undersea cables and maritime routes, which are often less visible than missiles but central to commerce and communications. For Australia, the issue is not only direct attack but also the ability of another power to pressure or disrupt key systems.

What remains unclear is how quickly China's reach could expand further and whether any of the scenarios identified in the report will materialise. The analysis does not say when or if China will obtain a Pacific base, or whether it will develop bomber or drone platforms with the range to reach Australia. The next developments to watch are Australia's policy response, any further assessment from defence officials, and whether the report prompts changes in planning for maritime security, infrastructure protection and regional basing.

#China #Australia #missiles #defence #security

Sponsored