Australia warns of potentially strongest El Niño in decades

Australia's weather bureau has warned that El Niño conditions have formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify into one of the strongest events seen in decades. The agency said sea surface temperatures in the region have exceeded El Niño thresholds and that atmospheric indicators are now aligned with the pattern. It said forecasts point to a strong to very strong event, with around half of the models suggesting it could peak among the highest levels observed since 1950.

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The bureau said the developing event is linked to less rainfall in winter and spring, particularly on Australia's east coast, as well as higher daytime temperatures in southern areas. It said the pattern is especially significant for Australia because of its impact on agricultural production. The country is among the world's largest exporters of wheat, sugar and beef, making weather shifts in the Pacific a matter of economic as well as environmental concern.

The warning comes after the last El Niño experienced in Australia, from 2023 to 2024, which the bureau said brought the driest three-month period on record. It also follows one of the strongest events in 2015 and 2016, which caused widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed output. Those earlier episodes are being used as a reference point for the possible scale of the current event, although the bureau has not said the latest pattern will necessarily match them.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and its effects are often felt far beyond the region where it forms. In Australia, the phenomenon is closely watched because it can affect rainfall, temperatures and water availability across large areas. That makes the current forecast relevant not only to farmers but also to water managers, commodity markets and state planning for heat and drought risk.

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Scientists have said climate change may intensify the effects of this year's El Niño, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook. The bureau's statement suggests the current warming is already substantial enough to place the event in the strong category, with the possibility of further intensification. The scale of the impact will depend on how the pattern develops over the coming months and how it interacts with local weather systems.

What remains unclear is how severe the event will become and which parts of Australia will be most affected. The bureau has pointed to model forecasts rather than confirmed impacts, so the situation is still developing. The key things to watch are rainfall trends, temperature extremes and any signs of stress on crops and water supplies as the season progresses.

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