Abiy Ahmed retains majority in Ethiopia election amid conflict fears
Ethiopia's general election has returned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party to a large parliamentary majority, in a vote overshadowed by conflict, accusations of repression and limited participation by opposition parties. The party has won 438 of the 501 seats declared, according to the confirmed results available so far. Abiy is now set to be sworn in for another term at the beginning of October.
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The result strengthens the position of the 49-year-old leader, who first came to power in 2018 after anti-government protests. He was initially praised for efforts to reduce political divisions and later won the Nobel Peace Prize for helping end hostilities with Eritrea. Supporters say his government has overseen economic gains, but critics and security analysts warn that internal tensions are deepening rather than easing.
The election was marked by serious security problems in parts of the country. On polling day, 143 polling stations failed to open in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions, because of safety concerns linked to armed groups fighting the government. The Fano militias in Amhara and the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia both rejected the election and its results.
Their continued activity underlines the scale of the challenge facing the authorities. The vote also leaves unresolved the question of how Ethiopia manages its wider political and security crisis. The country is Africa's second-most populous, and its internal divisions have been sharpened by years of conflict, regional grievances and contested authority.
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The election outcome gives Abiy a renewed mandate, but it also comes at a time when fears are growing that violence could intensify rather than subside. Tigray remains a major part of that picture. The region, which has about six million inhabitants and 36 constituencies, was completely excluded from the poll as it continues to recover from a two-year civil war that ended in 2022.
During that war, Tigrayan forces were allied with Ethiopian government troops, and both sides were accused of atrocities, allegations they denied. The exclusion of the region from the election shows how far the political process remains from being fully national. Relations with Eritrea also remain a factor in the broader security environment.
Abiy's early reputation was built in part on ending the conflict with Ethiopia's northern neighbour, but relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have since deteriorated sharply. Eritrea has accused landlocked Ethiopia of harbouring imperial ambitions, while Abiy has repeatedly spoken about Ethiopia's need to regain access to the sea. Those tensions add another layer of uncertainty to the country's political future.
For now, the main question is whether the new parliamentary majority will help stabilise Ethiopia or deepen existing fault lines. The election has delivered a clear result for the Prosperity Party, but it has not resolved the armed challenges in Amhara and Oromia, nor the unresolved status of Tigray. What happens next will depend on whether the government can reduce violence, widen political participation and prevent further deterioration in relations with armed groups and neighbouring states.
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