Pakistan issues nationwide alert over heavy rain, flooding and glacial lake outburst risk

Pakistan's disaster authority has issued a nationwide alert warning of thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, urban flooding and the risk of glacial lake outburst floods over the next 12 to 24 hours. The warning covers vulnerable northern areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Officials said provincial and district administrations have been placed on high alert and told to keep drainage systems clear.

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The National Disaster Management Authority said the weather window is critical as the country prepares for what could be a fourth consecutive year of severe monsoon conditions, expected later this month. The alert specifically identified Hunza and Skardu in Gilgit-Baltistan among the areas most exposed to possible climate-related damage. Authorities also warned of flooding in the capital and surrounding urban areas, where heavy rain can quickly overwhelm drainage and transport systems.

The warning comes against a backdrop of repeated monsoon disasters in Pakistan. Last year's rains killed more than 1,000 people, including 275 children, and displaced three million people from their homes. In 2022, historic floods linked in part to melting glaciers submerged nearly a third of the country and drew global attention to Pakistan's climate vulnerability.

Pakistan is among the countries most affected by climate change despite contributing less than 1% of global emissions. That imbalance has become a central part of the country's disaster risk profile, especially in the north where warming temperatures are accelerating glacial melt. In Gilgit-Baltistan this year, temperatures reached a record 48.5C, breaking a high set in 1971, according to the information provided with the alert.

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The scale of the glacier risk is significant because Pakistan has about 13,000 glaciers, the most in the world after the polar ice caps. The United Nations Development Programme has said melting glaciers in the Hindu Kush, Himalayas and Karakoram have formed more than 3,000 glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with 33 assessed as vulnerable to dangerous outbursts. It said more than 7.1 million people live around those lakes and could be at risk if a flood is triggered.

What remains unclear is whether the alert will translate into immediate flooding or whether the worst conditions will be localised to the northern mountain regions and major cities named in the warning. The next 12 to 24 hours will be important for assessing whether drainage measures and local preparedness reduce the impact. Officials are expected to continue monitoring rainfall, river levels and glacial lakes as the monsoon period approaches.

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