Heathrow warns of lower passengers and profits as Middle East conflict hits traffic

Heathrow has said passenger numbers and profits are set to fall this year because the conflict in the Middle East is weighing on air travel demand. The airport, which describes itself as Europe's busiest, said the regional violence is creating notable downward pressure on traffic. It added that the impact could extend beyond the region and affect global travel demand for the rest of the year.

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In its latest investor report, Heathrow forecast a 1.1% decline in total passengers to 83.6 million. It also said profits are expected to fall by £147 million year on year, and by £60 million compared with its previous forecast published in December. The airport said passenger numbers rose 0.7% to 32.8 million in the year to the end of May, helped in part by more travellers using Heathrow to connect to flights after other hubs were affected by the regional conflict.

The company said it has been engaging closely with the Civil Aviation Authority over the cost of its plan to build a third runway. That project remains politically and financially sensitive, with the airport seeking to advance a long-running expansion proposal while also managing the impact of weaker traffic. Earlier this month, Department for Transport documents suggested the economic gains from a third runway could be far smaller than previously estimated.

The government analysis said the runway could lift GDP by up to 0.05%, which it described as 90% lower than the 0.5% figure previously cited. It also said the wider trade-off from a larger airport could cost the UK as much as £62.5 billion. The same assessment warned of major adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of up to 3 million people living nearby, including pressure on noise, air quality and access to housing, education, healthcare, open space and transport.

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Heathrow's latest warning comes as airlines and airports continue to adjust to the effects of the Middle East conflict on routes and passenger behaviour. The airport's figures suggest that even when some travellers are redirected through London, broader demand can still weaken if volatility persists. That makes the outlook for the rest of the year more uncertain for one of the UK's most important transport hubs.

The third-runway debate has been running for years and remains a major issue for the airport, regulators and local communities. In May, Heathrow's new chair opened talks with airlines and local landowner Surinder Arora in an effort to reduce tensions that could delay the project further. What remains unclear is how long the traffic pressure from the Middle East conflict will last, and whether the airport's expansion plans will face further changes as discussions with the regulator continue.

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