OPEC+ agrees to raise oil production from August as prices ease

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day from August 2026, according to a statement from the group. The decision was taken on Sunday in an online meeting and comes as global oil prices have fallen. The move adds to similar increases approved for June and July.

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The group said the latest rise will be part of a gradual increase in supply after a period of disruption linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The supporting material says the Strait of Hormuz had been closed to tanker traffic from some major OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, before a gradual reopening began. It also says production had fallen to 33.13 million barrels per day in May, compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.

The article also says seven key OPEC+ members had raised their quotas by almost 800,000 barrels per day between April and July, although much of that increase had not been fully reflected in output because of the war. Production recovery began in June, helped by efforts by the United States to support the United Arab Emirates and other members in expanding exports. Even so, output remained below pre-war levels, underlining how quickly the group's supply plans have been affected by regional security developments.

The decision matters because OPEC+ remains one of the most influential forces in the oil market, and changes to its production targets can affect prices, revenues and inflation expectations well beyond the countries directly involved. The latest increase comes at a time when demand signals have weakened, including lower imports by China, while the market has also reacted to the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran that ended the war. That combination has helped push prices down and created room for the group to add supply.

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OPEC+ is an alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia. The supporting material says the latest adjustment also reflects the reversal of 2023 cuts by seven members, a process complicated by the United Arab Emirates' departure and Iraq's calls for larger quotas. Those internal tensions have been part of the wider debate over how quickly the group should restore output after earlier restraint.

What remains unclear is how much of the August increase will translate into actual barrels on the market, given the recent history of disruption and uneven compliance. It is also not yet clear how far prices will move as exports continue to recover and the Strait of Hormuz reopens more fully. Traders and policymakers will be watching whether the group keeps to the planned path of gradual increases in the months ahead.

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