Hamas leadership runoff set between Meshaal and al-Hayya after no outright majority

Hamas is expected to hold a runoff election next week to choose its new political bureau chief after no candidate won an outright majority in the first round. The contest has narrowed to Khaled Meshaal and Khalil al-Hayya, according to a Hamas source cited in the supplied material. The vote is part of a wider internal transition that began after the killings of senior Hamas figures, including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.

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The internal ballot requires a candidate to win more than 50% of the votes in the Shura Council, the group's consultative body. Because neither Meshaal nor al-Hayya reached that threshold, the leadership race has moved to a runoff. The source said the winner will replace the current transitional council, which took over after Sinwar was killed in Gaza in October 2024.

The new leader is expected to serve until 2027, when new elections are due. The supplied material says Hamas has had to adjust its usual voting process because of security pressures linked to the war and the need to fill vacancies in the Shura Council. It also says the group has relied on a narrower voting base rather than its full grassroots membership to complete the current electoral term, which began in 2021.

The result matters because the political bureau chief is one of Hamas's most important decision-makers at a time of continuing conflict and organisational strain. The leadership choice will shape how the group presents itself politically and how it manages internal balance between its different geographic constituencies. The supplied material says Hamas is divided into three regions: Gaza, the West Bank and the diaspora.

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That regional structure appears to be relevant to the runoff. The source said a 2021 framework requires the top two leadership positions to include a representative from Gaza. On that basis, if al-Hayya does not win the top post, he is expected to become deputy political chief.

That detail suggests the vote is not only about succession, but also about preserving internal representation across the movement. Meshaal is described in the supplied material as a former Hamas political leader, while al-Hayya is described as a former deputy chairman. Both are longstanding figures in the movement, and their presence in the final round indicates that the leadership contest has been reduced to two established names rather than opening the field to a broader set of candidates.

The transition follows the loss of several senior figures, which has forced Hamas to accelerate its internal arrangements. The broader context is a leadership vacuum created by targeted killings of senior Hamas figures, including Haniyeh and Sinwar. The supplied material says the current process is intended to complete a complex transition and renew the group while it remains under wartime pressure.

It also indicates that the internal election had been delayed by security challenges and by the need to replace members of the Shura Council who were killed. What remains unclear is how the runoff will unfold and whether the result will alter Hamas's internal balance beyond the immediate succession. The supplied material does not give a precise date for the vote beyond saying it is expected next week, and it does not say how many members will participate in the final round.

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The key point to watch is whether the Gaza representation rule shapes the outcome, and whether the new leader can consolidate authority through 2027.

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