Trump warns Iran over Strait of Hormuz as deal may be near

US President Donald Trump has said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as today or tomorrow, while warning that Iran would be hit very hard if negotiations fail. His comments came as the strategic waterway remained at the centre of talks involving the United States, Oman and Iran over traffic through the passage. The latest remarks add urgency to a dispute that has already unsettled global energy markets and shipping.

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Trump said negotiators had a very good day and told reporters in California that the strait would be open very soon, or Iran would face consequences. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier that there was a chance of a deal by today or tomorrow, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was involved in negotiations between Oman and Iran on increasing traffic through the strait. Iran's foreign ministry has denied direct negotiations with Washington, even as Trump insisted talks were taking place.

The situation remains volatile at sea. One crew member was listed missing after a merchant ship was hit by a projectile in Hormuz, and an Indian ship in the Red Sea sank after an unattributed attack. The reported incidents underline the risks facing commercial shipping in and around the region, where any disruption can quickly affect oil and gas supplies, freight costs and wider market confidence.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, carrying a large share of global oil and gas flows. That makes any change in access or control over the passage a matter of immediate economic and geopolitical significance. The reported talks also matter because they link diplomacy directly to energy security, with the possibility of a short-term arrangement offering relief to markets that have been under pressure for months.

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According to the supplied material, Iran has tightened its grip on Hormuz and wants to control the strait and charge tolls, powers it did not exercise before the war began on 28 February. The report also says renewed fighting followed an April ceasefire, showing that the dispute over the waterway is part of a broader conflict rather than an isolated shipping issue. Qatar has also been involved in mediation efforts, and its leader spoke with Trump by phone as diplomatic efforts continued.

What remains unclear is whether the reported progress will produce a formal deal, and if so, what terms would govern passage through the strait. No details have been released on any possible arrangement, including whether Iran would be allowed to charge ships passing through. Investors, governments and shipping firms will be watching for confirmation of any reopening, as well as any sign that the talks could still break down.

Donald Trump has warned that Iran would be "hit very hard" if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened soon, as US officials said talks had advanced on a possible arrangement to allow shipments to resume. The comments came as oil prices fell sharply on hopes that commercial traffic through the strategic waterway could restart later this week. The developments point to a possible shift in a dispute that has already unsettled global energy markets.

Trump said the strait would open "very soon" during remarks after a visit to California, and said Iran was keen to reach a deal to end months of conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been progress in discussions involving Iran and Oman, but added that there was not yet final agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, while also describing the prospect as a move towards a more normalised position in the conflict.

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The market reaction was immediate. Brent crude fell by almost 5% to under $80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by more than 5% to $76, both reaching their lowest levels since 13 July. US Central Command said the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remained free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway.

The statement came as traders weighed the possibility of eased supply disruptions against the risk that previous talks had failed to de-escalate the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, and any disruption can quickly affect oil prices, shipping costs and fuel bills far beyond the Gulf. The latest move matters because it links diplomacy directly to energy security, with the prospect of resumed shipments offering relief to markets that have been volatile for months.

It also highlights the leverage held by the narrow passage, through which a large share of global oil flows. Iran has said it is not negotiating directly with the US and has no plans to do so, instead pointing to talks with Oman, which it described as a mediator. A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry said discussions with Oman on a new mechanism for vessels passing through the strait had been positive.

Qatar, which has also acted as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, said it was continuing its efforts, underlining the wider regional diplomatic effort around the dispute. What remains unclear is whether the reported progress will produce a formal deal, and if so, what terms would govern passage through the strait. No details have been released on any potential arrangement, including whether Iran would be allowed to charge ships passing through.

Investors, governments and shipping firms will be watching for confirmation of any reopening, as well as any sign that the talks could still break down.

Global oil markets are being reshaped by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route in the Middle East. The disruption has pushed oil prices higher for months and has fed through to household energy costs in the United States and Europe. At the same time, major oil companies have reported sharply higher quarterly profits as the war on Iran and widening hostilities in the Red Sea continue to unsettle supply chains.

The companies named in the latest market reports include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies. ExxonMobil said second-quarter earnings reached $14.5bn, with adjusted earnings of $14.7bn, its highest quarterly profit in four years. Chevron reported second-quarter earnings of $12bn, its highest quarterly profit in six years, while Shell said its second-quarter earnings were nearly $10bn, more than double the previous period.

The figures underline how a supply shock in one of the world's most important energy corridors can affect producers far beyond the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage through which a large share of global oil flows, so any prolonged closure can quickly tighten markets and lift prices. In this case, the gains for large producers have come alongside higher costs for consumers and continued uncertainty for refiners, traders and shipping firms.

The market reaction also reflects the wider impact of the war on Iran, which has extended pressure across the region and into the Red Sea. The supplied figures show that higher oil and gas prices, along with stronger refining margins, have supported earnings for several major companies. Chevron's upstream earnings rose 200 percent year-on-year to $8.2bn, while its downstream earnings reached $4.9bn, its strongest performance since the early 2010s.

For Europe and the United States, the consequences are being felt in fuel and household prices, even though much of the production of the companies involved is outside the Strait of Hormuz. TotalEnergies said its second-quarter earnings rose 67 percent, its best quarter in nearly three years, helped by higher oil prices and stronger refining chemicals margins. BP reported second-quarter profit of $5.73bn, more than double the previous period, adding to the picture of a sector benefiting from volatility even as the wider economy absorbs the shock.

What remains unclear is how long the closure will last and whether the disruption will deepen further if regional hostilities continue. The supplied material does not give a timeline for any reopening or a resolution to the conflict. Investors, governments and consumers will be watching for any change in shipping conditions, oil supply routes and the next round of company earnings.

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