Iraq faces mounting crisis as Shia armed groups resist disarmament deadline

Iraq's government is facing a growing political and security crisis as a September 30 deadline approaches for restricting weapons to state control. The dispute centres on powerful Shia armed factions that have rejected or questioned the plan, even as some other groups have said they will integrate into the state's armed forces. The issue has become one of the clearest tests yet of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's authority over armed actors outside formal state structures.

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Kataib Hezbollah, described as one of Iraq's most heavily armed Iran-aligned paramilitary groups, has explicitly رفض the government's mandate and said it will keep what it calls "resistance weapons" while continuing to develop its arsenal. Harakat al-Nujaba has also resisted the plan, arguing that any campaign against weapons should focus on illegal arms that cause disorder rather than those held by fighters it says defended Iraq, its holy sites and its people in difficult circumstances. By contrast, groups including Saraya al-Salam, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib al-Imam Ali have agreed to integrate into the state's armed forces.

The government's push comes amid pressure from the United States and broader economic strain. Iraq depends on oil revenues for more than 90% of its state budget, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was said to have reduced oil exports to about 600,000 barrels per day in March, down from 3.3 million barrels per day. That economic backdrop has increased the urgency of efforts to stabilise the security environment and attract foreign investment, while also exposing the limits of state control over armed groups.

The dispute matters because it goes to the heart of Iraq's constitutional order and the state's monopoly on force. Analysts quoted in the report said that armed factions operating outside state control undermine the definition of the state itself. The disagreement also reflects a wider regional context in which some factions justify retaining weapons by pointing to the presence of US troops and external threats, making disarmament not only a domestic issue but also part of Iraq's position in a broader geopolitical confrontation.

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The current standoff is rooted in the long-standing influence of Shia paramilitary groups that emerged as major military and political actors during periods of conflict and instability. Their role has since become embedded in Iraq's security landscape, creating a parallel power structure that successive governments have struggled to bring fully under state authority. The latest deadline therefore represents more than a technical weapons policy; it is a direct challenge to the balance between elected institutions, armed factions and outside pressure.

What remains unclear is whether the government can enforce the September 30 deadline or whether the resistance from major factions will force a compromise. It is also uncertain how many groups that have signalled support for integration will follow through in practice. The next phase will be watched closely for signs of whether the state can consolidate control over arms without triggering a deeper political confrontation.

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