Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz nearly triple as US-Iran MoU expires without peace deal

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose sharply during a 60-day memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, but the agreement has now expired without a peace deal. Trade intelligence data shows that about 374 million barrels of oil left the Gulf during the period, equal to roughly 6.1 million barrels a day. The increase came as the waterway remained under pressure from attacks on commercial shipping.

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The analysis says flows through the chokepoint nearly tripled compared with the period before the agreement was signed on 17 June, when exports averaged 2.3 million barrels a day. Even so, volumes remained below pre-war levels and reached only about 40% of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2025. More than half of the shipments took place in the first three weeks of the arrangement, before the pace weakened later in the period.

The memorandum was announced after a burst of diplomatic activity, mainly facilitated by Pakistan, and was presented by US and Iranian officials as a step towards a permanent end to the war. Its expiry on Monday leaves no formal peace deal in place, and negotiations between Washington and Tehran are reported to have stalled. The timing matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important routes for global energy supplies, and any disruption there can quickly affect shipping confidence and market expectations.

The latest figures also underline how fragile the recovery in oil traffic has been. Kpler said the flow became "thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint" by the end of the agreement, suggesting that the early surge did not hold. That pattern is significant for shippers, insurers and energy buyers because the strait links Gulf producers to international markets and remains vulnerable to security shocks.

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Security concerns have intensified alongside the diplomatic setback. The UKMTO Operations Centre said five commercial vessels were attacked in the strait over the past week, including a cargo ship that reported being hit by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday. One seafarer died in that incident, and the International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners identified the person as a crew member on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity.

The association said seafarers are civilians and should not be targeted. What remains unclear is whether the expired memorandum will be replaced by a new arrangement or whether shipping risks will continue to rise. The immediate focus is on the next round of talks, the security of vessels passing through the strait, and whether the recent attacks will deter further cargo movements.

For now, the data points to a brief rebound in oil flows, followed by renewed uncertainty at a critical global chokepoint.

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