UK winter energy bills set to rise to three-year high

Energy bills for millions of households in the United Kingdom are expected to rise this winter to their highest level in three years. The increase is due to be announced by the energy regulator on Wednesday and is expected to affect customers in England, Scotland and Wales on variable tariffs. Analysts expect the price cap to rise by about 4%, driven by higher wholesale gas costs.

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The cap applies to about 33 million households and limits the maximum price suppliers can charge per unit of gas and electricity, rather than setting a total bill. That means the final amount paid still depends on how much energy a household uses. The higher cap is expected to take effect as colder weather arrives, covering the period from October to the end of December.

Suppliers have said energy debt has increased and have called for more support for households struggling to pay. The suppliers' trade body said the average price of gas has been 61% higher over the past three months than in late 2025, reflecting volatility in international wholesale gas markets. It also said many households have moved to fixed tariffs, which would shield them from the immediate rise until the end of their contract.

The expected increase comes after several years of pressure on household budgets following the energy crisis that began in 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Industry data suggests bills are still about 70% above the pre-crisis norm, leaving many families paying hundreds of pounds more each year than before. The regulator also reduced its estimate of typical household energy use in July, saying many homes have cut consumption and improved efficiency in response to high prices.

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A consultancy has forecast that a typical household paying by direct debit could face an annual bill of £1,729 from October, up from £1,663 between July and September. The government says value added tax is being cut from electricity bills, but the expected cap rise is still likely to add to pressure on household finances. The announcement will be closely watched because it affects a large share of homes across Great Britain and may shape calls for further support.

What remains unclear is the regulator's final figure and whether ministers will respond with any additional measures for households facing higher costs. It is also not yet clear how far wholesale gas prices will move in the coming months, which will influence future cap decisions. The next key point will be the regulator's formal announcement and any reaction from suppliers, consumer groups and the government.

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