Six months into Iran-US war, Gulf states face prolonged regional fallout

The war between Iran and the United States, with Israel also involved, is being described as entering a phase of attrition six months after it began. Analysts cited in the report say there is no sign of regime collapse in Tehran and no clear path to a decisive victory for Washington. Instead, the conflict is settling into a prolonged stalemate with wider regional consequences.

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The fighting began after surprise Israeli and US attacks on 28 February, according to the report. A memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran in June reduced the intensity of the war, but did not end it. The report says the expectation in Washington at the start was that sustained military and economic pressure would force a structural shift in Iran, but that outcome now appears unlikely.

The immediate effects are being felt most sharply in Gulf economies and maritime trade. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels after Iran's attacks on shipping and a US blockade on Iranian ports, leaving oil-dependent states to absorb continuing supply shocks. The report also says the US military remains heavily entrenched in a region that is still among the most militarised in years.

The conflict matters beyond the battlefield because it is reshaping security calculations across the Gulf. The report says formal alliances with outside powers no longer guarantee safety, and that regional states are increasingly looking at broader defence partnerships and greater self-reliance. It also says the war has accelerated trends already under way, including economic diversification and efforts to widen security ties beyond existing US guarantees.

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The report points to several wider implications already emerging from the stalemate. Tensions involving the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen are expected to rise as the war drags on. Rival powers such as India and China are also described as remaining influential in the region, with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative already established across the Middle East and North Africa.

A recently signed defence agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in Mecca is presented as a sign of more military pacts to come. What remains unclear is whether the June memorandum can evolve into a more durable settlement or whether the conflict will continue to harden into a long-term regional confrontation. The report says there is still no sign the war will conclude, and that uncertainty is likely to persist for Gulf governments, traders and security planners.

The next developments to watch are maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the durability of the June understanding, and whether new regional defence arrangements continue to emerge.

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