Tropical Storm Dolly heads toward the Caribbean with flash-flood risk

Tropical Storm Dolly is moving quickly across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Leeward Islands, with forecasters warning that it could bring significant rainfall to parts of the Caribbean this weekend. The National Hurricane Center said on Friday morning that the storm is expected to approach the islands late Saturday into Sunday. It added that heavy rain could then spread into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday.

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Dolly formed on Thursday and had maximum sustained winds of near 40 mph, or 65 km/h, with higher gusts as of Friday. The storm is moving fast, which can affect where and when the heaviest rain falls. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect at the time of the latest advisory.

Forecasters said the main immediate concern is flash flooding, especially in higher terrain across the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands stretch from the Virgin Islands to Guadeloupe, placing several populated island groups within the area of concern. Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is also in the projected rainfall path later in the weekend and early next week.

The storm matters because even a relatively weak tropical system can produce dangerous rainfall over islands with steep terrain and limited drainage. In the Caribbean, heavy rain can quickly lead to flooding, travel disruption and localised damage even when wind speeds remain below hurricane strength. The timing also means emergency planners and residents have only a short window to prepare before the heaviest rain is expected.

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Dolly is the fourth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November. The storm naming system uses predetermined alphabetical lists maintained by the World Meteorological Organization on a six-year rotation. The Atlantic season has so far been quieter than usual, with forecasters pointing to El Niño conditions as one factor that can reduce storm activity.

What remains unclear is how much rain Dolly will ultimately deliver in each island group and whether any watches or warnings will be issued as the system draws closer. The forecast track could still shift, changing the timing and intensity of impacts across the region. The next updates will focus on rainfall totals, any changes in the storm's strength and whether local authorities begin issuing flood advisories.

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