EU weighs three-year mission to help Lebanon as UNIFIL mandate nears expiry

European officials are discussing a possible European Union mission to support Lebanon's security forces as the long-running UN peacekeeping presence in the south approaches its planned end. The proposal would come as UNIFIL's mandate is set to expire on 31 December 2026, raising questions about what, if anything, could fill the gap. The issue is expected to be discussed at an EU defence and foreign ministers meeting in Ireland this week.

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According to the material under discussion, the European External Action Service has circulated a plan for a three-year military and civilian mission. The mission would advise and train the Lebanese armed forces and the Internal Security Forces, including on border and maritime security. Officials involved in the discussion say the aim would be to strengthen the Lebanese state rather than replace UNIFIL directly.

The timing is significant because Lebanon remains under almost daily Israeli bombardment, with about a fifth of its territory occupied and around 335,000 people still displaced. That combination of military pressure and displacement has sharpened concern over a possible security vacuum in southern Lebanon if the UN force leaves without a clear successor arrangement. Analysts cited in the material say Israel could benefit from the end of the mandate, underscoring the wider regional stakes.

UNIFIL was created on 19 March 1978, days after Israel invaded southern Lebanon, and its role expanded after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 added tasks including monitoring the ceasefire and supporting the Lebanese armed forces' deployment in the south. Even so, the force was never given powers to enforce compliance, and could only watch, report and accompany rather than compel an Israeli withdrawal or disarm armed groups.

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The current debate also reflects long-running uncertainty over what a post-UNIFIL arrangement could realistically achieve. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in May that Europeans were willing to assemble a mission to help the Lebanese armed forces, but questioned whether there was appetite for a completely new European mission to fully replace UNIFIL. A separate European force, according to one academic cited in the material, would likely focus on monitoring and self-protection rather than taking on enforcement tasks.

What remains unclear is whether EU member states will agree to the proposal, what mandate such a mission would receive, and how it would operate alongside Lebanese institutions and the wider regional security environment. It is also not clear whether the plan would gain enough political support to move beyond discussion. The coming ministerial meeting in Ireland is likely to be an early test of whether Europe is prepared to take on a larger role as the UN mission winds down.

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