AfD surges toward breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt election

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany is on course for a major breakthrough in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where it is expected to win a state election for the first time. The result would mark a significant shift in German regional politics and could put the party in position to lead a state government for the first time since World War II. The vote is being watched closely as a test of the country's political establishment and the strength of support for hardline anti-immigration politics.

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The party's leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt is Ulrich Siegmund, who has been described by one magazine as "Germany's most dangerous man". Before entering politics with the AfD, he was a member of the Christian Democratic Union. The party is leading in the polls by a wide margin and is expected to win more than 40% of the vote.

The Christian Democratic Union is trailing at just above 20%, while the Left Party is on 12%, the Social Democrats on 7% and the Greens on 5%. The AfD has been classified as far-right extremist in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany's domestic intelligence service. Its election platform calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, the confiscation of cash and assets from asylum seekers, and mass deportations.

The party's rise has sharpened debate over how mainstream parties should respond, especially as Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ruled out cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party. Depending on whether smaller parties clear the threshold for parliament, other parties could still try to form a majority without the AfD. The election matters beyond Saxony-Anhalt because it would be the first time a far-right force has headed a German state government since the end of the Second World War.

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That would carry symbolic weight in a country where post-war politics has been shaped by efforts to keep extremist parties away from power. It would also add pressure on national parties already facing disputes over migration, economic concerns and the future direction of conservative politics. The vote has also highlighted the appeal of the AfD among some voters who say they are frustrated with the established parties.

One voter in Magdeburg said he was backing the AfD because of the economy and because he supports its hardline immigration policy. The party's message has centred on asylum, deportation and a broader rejection of what it sees as failed mainstream policy. Those themes have helped it build support in eastern Germany, where it has become a major force in regional politics.

What remains unclear is whether the AfD can translate its polling lead into a governing majority, or whether other parties can still assemble a coalition without it. It is also not yet clear how the result will affect relations between the state and federal levels if the party performs as expected. The final outcome will determine whether Saxony-Anhalt becomes the first German state to be led by the far right in the post-war era.

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