Spain declassifies warnings ahead of Ceuta mass-crossing crisis

Spain has released declassified documents showing that its intelligence services warned of possible mass crossings into Ceuta before the border crisis that unfolded in late July. The papers indicate that the National Intelligence Center, known as CNI, alerted officials in the Spanish enclave on July 29 to social-media calls for an assault on the fence and by sea the following day. The same material also says Moroccan intelligence agencies were warned about plans to enter Ceuta by climbing the border barrier or swimming around it.

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According to the documents, the warning was sent as the situation was building around Morocco's national Throne Day, which falls on July 30. One message, sent by WhatsApp to the Spanish government's delegation in Ceuta, referred to two social-media groups with a combined 180,000 followers and said the posts gave an idea of the scale of the mobilisation. The declassified trove contains 40 documents and was released amid near-daily protests in Ceuta over the government's handling of the crisis.

The documents place the warning one day before more than 72,000 people began arriving in Ceuta from Morocco between July 30 and 31. They also show that CNI informed Morocco's DGST and DGED intelligence services on the same day. A separate CNI document issued at midday on July 30 said it was highly likely that Moroccan authorities were not actively encouraging the migratory wave, but had so far acted in a negligent and passive manner.

It added that no proactive response from Moroccan authorities had been observed at the operational level. The disclosures matter because they go to the heart of a politically sensitive dispute between Madrid and Rabat over who knew what, and when, before one of the most serious border episodes in recent years. The influx into Ceuta strained Spanish border management and intensified scrutiny of Spain's relationship with Morocco, a key neighbour in migration control and regional security.

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The release of the documents has also fed domestic criticism in Ceuta, where protests have continued over the handling of the crisis. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez rejected the suggestion that the documents showed prior warning of a crisis on the scale that followed. He said the campaign had been known to other institutions and was being monitored, but that it could not be interpreted as an indicator of the scale, nature or probability of what happened later.

Sanchez had previously said there was no evidence of Moroccan involvement, despite a leaked police report in July alleging total permissiveness from Moroccan police during the border rush. What remains unclear is how much weight the warnings carried inside the Spanish and Moroccan systems, and whether any operational response could have changed the outcome. The documents suggest that intelligence agencies on both sides were aware of online mobilisation and possible crossing routes, but they do not establish that the later influx was prevented or coordinated.

The political fallout is likely to continue as the declassified material is examined and as questions persist over the role of Moroccan authorities and the adequacy of Spain's response.

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