PM-backed candidate wins Okinawa governor race, raising questions over base policy

Genta Koja has won Okinawa's gubernatorial election, defeating two-term incumbent Denny Tamaki in a result that could reshape debate over the prefecture's long-running dispute with Tokyo and Washington. Officials said Koja won 59% of the vote in Sunday's election, with the result announced on Monday. The 42-year-old former deputy mayor of Naha will become Okinawa's youngest governor since the prefecture was returned to Japan from US rule in 1972.

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Koja was backed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, giving the ruling camp a stronger position in a prefecture that has often resisted the concentration of US military facilities. Tamaki, 66, had campaigned on opposition to moving a major US military base out of Okinawa. The election therefore carried significance beyond local politics, because the governor has influence over decisions linked to land use, permits and the wider relationship between the prefectural government and the central authorities.

The result may affect legal efforts to block the relocation of US Marines from the Futenma air base to a new facility at Henoko on Okinawa's main island. A professor emeritus at the University of the Ryukyus said Koja could be expected to approve designations that would open civilian airports and ports to military use. That would mark a notable shift in a debate that has shaped Okinawa politics for more than a decade.

Okinawa is strategically important because it sits within what military planners call the first island chain, a line of territory stretching from Japan through the Philippines that limits China's access to the western Pacific. The prefecture has also been central to Japan's security discussions because of the large US military presence there. The issue has remained politically sensitive, with local opposition often focused on the burden of hosting bases and the impact on civilian life.

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Koja's victory also comes as Takaichi prepares to unveil a new national security strategy later this year. Her administration has said higher defence spending is needed to deter China from using military force to advance its territorial ambitions in East Asia. Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have risen since Takaichi said last year that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could also threaten Japan and trigger a military response from Tokyo.

What remains unclear is how quickly Koja will move on the relocation issue and whether his administration will alter the prefecture's approach to military access at civilian facilities. It is also not yet clear how far the result will change the legal and political balance around Henoko. The next focus will be on Koja's early decisions and how they are received by Okinawa residents, the central government and US military planners.

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