Sahel jihadist violence set to hit record levels this year
Islamist extremist violence in Africa's Sahel region is on track to reach historic highs this year, according to new figures compiled by a conflict monitor. The data point to a sharp escalation across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which together form the main centre of jihadist militancy in the region. The figures come as armed groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State continue to expand their reach in parts of the central Sahel.
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The monitor said incidents of violence involving jihadist groups in the three countries have risen from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have already been logged, suggesting the annual total could exceed 3,000 if current trends continue. The same figures indicate that the Sahel has become the main geographic focus of this violence, even as global terrorism deaths have fallen to their lowest level since 2008.
The scale of the violence has already had severe consequences for civilians and security forces across the region. A recent international peace index cited more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2025. The data also underline how the conflict has become increasingly concentrated in a vast and contested belt at the heart of the Sahel, where state forces, insurgents and local armed groups continue to compete for territory and influence.
The latest figures matter because they show the Sahel now sits at the centre of a wider shift in global militancy. While al-Qaida has weakened in some other theatres, the group and its affiliates remain active in parts of Africa, alongside Islamic State-linked networks. That makes the region strategically important not only for the governments directly affected, but also for international security planners tracking the spread of extremist violence.
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The report also places the current surge in a longer pattern of deterioration over the past decade. In 2016, the number of incidents involving jihadist groups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger was far lower than it is now, and the latest figures suggest a sustained upward trajectory rather than a short-term spike. The three countries have become the core of a conflict zone that has repeatedly drawn in national armies, insurgent coalitions and foreign-linked actors.
In Mali, the violence has been especially acute in recent months. In April, a joint offensive by the al-Qaida-linked group Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin and the Tuareg-dominated rebel group Azawad Liberation Front targeted strategic towns, government forces and their Russian auxiliaries with ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids. The attacks caused significant casualties and showed the breadth of the challenge facing the authorities.
That offensive also reached into the country's political and military leadership. Mali's defence minister died in a suicide attack on his residence in Kati, a garrison town north-west of Bamako, and the head of military intelligence was also killed. Other attacks hit Mali's international airport, while rebels seized control of the strategic city of Kidal, underlining the extent to which the conflict has spread beyond remote rural areas.
What remains unclear is whether the current pace of violence will continue through the rest of the year or be disrupted by military operations, shifting alliances or changes in control on the ground. The latest data suggest the region is heading towards another record year, but the final toll will depend on events in the coming months. The key question now is whether governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger can contain the violence, or whether the Sahel will remain the world's most concentrated theatre of jihadist conflict.
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