AfD surges in German state elections as Merz faces pressure after exit polls

Exit polls from Sunday's state elections in Germany have strengthened the far-right Alternative for Germany, with the party projected to win 37% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and to make gains in Berlin. The results, if confirmed, would mark a major setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union, which is facing what would be its worst state-election result since 1949. Merz described the outcome as a "disaster" and said he would continue as chancellor despite speculation that the poor showing could force him to resign.

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The latest figures also underline the scale of the AfD's advance in eastern Germany and beyond. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Social Democrats were projected on 35.5%, while the CDU was on 5.5%, just above the threshold for entering the state parliament. In Berlin, the AfD was projected at 16%, with the Left party on 24.5% and the conservatives on 20%.

Public broadcasters ARD and ZDF conducted the exit polls, and final results are still to be confirmed. The political significance is considerable because the AfD remains shut out of power by a long-standing "firewall" of non-cooperation agreed by mainstream parties in 2018. That arrangement has so far prevented the party from turning regional breakthroughs into governing coalitions, even as it continues to top national opinion polls and win first-place finishes at state level.

The latest results therefore increase pressure on Merz without immediately changing the coalition arithmetic in the states. The outcome also matters for the wider balance of politics in Germany, where Merz has been trying to steady his party after 16 months in office. The CDU leader came to power promising to revive an economy that has struggled to grow, but his government has faced weak approval and repeated electoral setbacks.

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The result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is especially damaging because it would be the party's weakest showing in any state election since 1949 if confirmed. The AfD's gains come after other recent regional advances, including a strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt, and they are likely to intensify debate inside the conservative camp about strategy and leadership. The party's co-leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, have helped drive its national profile, while mainstream parties continue to rule out cooperation.

That leaves the AfD with growing influence over the political agenda, even if it remains excluded from formal power. What remains unclear is whether the exit polls will hold once counting is complete and whether the CDU's poor result will trigger further internal pressure on Merz. The next developments to watch are the final vote tallies, reactions from the main parties and any sign that the chancellor's authority is weakening further.

The results will also be closely watched for what they mean for the AfD's longer-term prospects in eastern Germany and across the country.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has described the result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a "disaster" for his party after exit polls showed the Alternative for Germany finishing first in the northeastern state. The far-right party was projected to win 37% there, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats on 35.5%, while Merz's conservatives were on 5.5% and only just above the threshold for entering the state parliament. In Berlin, the AfD also gained ground, with exit polls putting it on 16%.

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The latest figures deepen pressure on Merz, who said he would accelerate reforms as CDU leader and chancellor in an effort to "bring Germany forward". In Berlin, the Left party was projected to lead on 24.5%, with the conservatives on 20%. According to the exit polls, the AfD's result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would be the party's strongest showing there and, if confirmed, the worst result for Merz's party in any state election since 1949.

The outcome matters because it adds to the AfD's national momentum at a time when mainstream parties continue to rule out working with it. That makes a direct path to government unlikely, but the party's repeated first-place finishes at state level are increasing its political weight. The results also underline the difficulties facing Merz as he tries to steady his party after a series of poor showings and low approval ratings.

The vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is especially significant because it comes from a state where the conservatives have struggled badly, while the Berlin result shows the AfD also strengthening in the capital. The party's rise has been a recurring feature of recent regional contests, and the latest numbers suggest that trend is continuing. Merz has already received backing from eight conservative state premiers, but the election results may complicate efforts to project unity and momentum.

The broader backdrop is a political landscape in which the AfD remains isolated by other major parties, even as it advances in opinion polls and regional elections. That isolation has so far prevented it from turning electoral gains into governing power. Still, the scale of the latest results will be watched closely for what they mean for the balance of power in eastern Germany and for Merz's authority within his own party.

What remains unclear is whether the exit polls will be confirmed once counting is complete and how quickly Merz can turn his promised reforms into political recovery. It is also not yet clear whether the CDU's weak showing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will trigger further internal pressure on the chancellor. The next focus will be on the final count, the response from the main parties, and whether the AfD can convert these gains into lasting influence.

The far-right Alternative for Germany has emerged as the strongest party in state elections in northeastern Germany, according to exit polls released on Sunday. The party also gained ground in Berlin, underlining a broader shift in support as Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces mounting political pressure. The results point to a difficult night for the conservatives and a further boost to the AfD's national momentum.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD was projected to win 37% of the vote, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats on 35.5%. Merz's conservatives were projected at 5.5%, a result that would leave them barely over the threshold for entering the state parliament. In Berlin, the AfD was projected at 16%, while the Left party led on 24.5% and the conservatives were on 20%.

The exit polls suggest the AfD is strengthening its position in both a largely rural eastern state and the capital. The party is anti-migration and Russia-friendly, and its gains come despite the fact that other major parties have ruled out working with it. That makes a formal path to power unlikely in the immediate term, even as the party continues to expand its support.

The results matter because they add to a series of recent electoral advances for the AfD and deepen the pressure on Merz, who became Germany's leader 16 months ago. He came to office promising to revive an economy that has barely grown in years, but his government has struggled to improve the national mood. The poor showing for his conservatives in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would be their worst result there since World War II.

The vote also comes two weeks after the AfD finished just short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt, another eastern state. That earlier result had already raised the prospect of the party's first far-right regional government in Germany since World War II. Sunday's numbers suggest the party remains on that trajectory, even if coalition arithmetic still works against it.

What remains unclear is whether the exit polls will hold once the count is complete and how the main parties will respond in the coming days. The key question is whether the AfD can convert its gains into governing influence, or whether the other parties' refusal to cooperate will continue to block it. The results will also be watched closely for what they mean for Merz's authority and for the balance of power in Germany's eastern states.

#Germany #AfD #FriedrichMerz #ChristianDemocraticUnion #MecklenburgWesternPomerania