Seven Ethiopian armed groups form alliance against government

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have announced a joint alliance aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and setting up an inclusive transitional administration. The groups said on Sunday that they had formed the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, also described as the Alliance for Survival. The announcement brings together former adversaries who say they will now set aside differences as fears grow of a wider war in Ethiopia.

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The alliance includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with four smaller groups: the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement. In a joint statement, the groups said they would work together to establish an inclusive transitional government. A source close to Fano said the leaders had been talking for about a year before the announcement.

The statement accuses the government of imposing what it called dictatorial rule and says this has pushed the country towards break-up. It also says a transitional government guided by a charter would seek to end the wars, protect rights and open a national dialogue. Jaal Marroo, the OLA's military leader, said earlier this month that the groups had met several times before agreeing on the final announcement.

Zemene Kassie, a Fano leader, had also indicated that deals had been reached in an interview published in August. The alliance comes at a sensitive moment for Ethiopia, where fighting has already gripped parts of Oromia since 2018 and Amhara since 2023. It also follows recent clashes in Tigray, which were described as one of the most serious breaches yet of the 2022 peace deal and have deepened fears of a return to full-scale war.

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The new alignment of armed groups raises the prospect of more coordinated pressure on federal forces across several regions at once. Prime Minister Abiy came to power in 2018 promising sweeping reforms, including the release of journalists, activists and other political prisoners and the lifting of bans on many political parties. His opponents and human rights activists have since accused his government of reversing those gains.

The inclusion of the TPLF is notable because the group dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office, while the OLA and Fano have been among the most active armed challengers to federal authority in recent years. What remains unclear is how tightly the alliance will operate in practice and whether the groups can translate the announcement into a unified military or political strategy. It is also not yet clear how the federal government will respond or whether the new bloc will alter the balance of fighting in Oromia, Amhara and Tigray.

The coming days are likely to show whether the declaration marks a symbolic alignment or the start of a more coordinated insurgent front.

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