Brazil election polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro deadlocked ahead of first round
Brazil's presidential race has tightened further, with new polls showing Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in simulated runoff scenarios. The first round of voting is less than two weeks away, and the contest is shaping up as a direct test between the incumbent left and the political right. If no candidate wins more than half of valid votes on October 4, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff on October 25.
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Two separate polls released on Monday put the two men within the margin of error in hypothetical second-round matchups. A Quaest survey showed Bolsonaro on 42 percent and Lula on 41 percent, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gave Lula 46 percent and Bolsonaro 45 percent. The latest figures also point to a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which had Lula ahead by five points, 44 percent to 39 percent.
Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term and launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers' Party convention in Sao Paulo. Flavio Bolsonaro is running as the right-wing challenger and is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil's top electoral court found he had abused his power while in office, and he was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
The polling shift matters because Brazil is one of the region's largest democracies and the result will shape the country's political direction after a period of intense legal and electoral confrontation. Lula has framed his campaign around defending Brazilian sovereignty, while also arguing that external economic pressure is affecting the race. The US imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, which Lula described as an attempt to influence the election through economic pressure.
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The campaign is also unfolding against a broader backdrop of tension between Brazil and the United States. Lula is currently in New York preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly, and he met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday. In a brief statement after the meeting, Lula said they discussed shared problems in Brazil and the United States, especially the rising cost of living.
What remains unclear is whether the current polling trend will hold as voters move closer to the first round. The next key marker will be whether any candidate can secure an outright majority on October 4 or force a runoff later in the month. For now, the race remains finely balanced, with both leading camps entering the final stretch under pressure.
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