EU warns of very high winter energy prices amid war-driven market pressure

The European Union's energy commissioner has warned that the bloc is heading into a difficult winter with very high oil and gas prices. Dan Jorgensen made the comments after an informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin, where he said the outlook was being shaped by the war between the United States and Iran and by the conflict in Ukraine. He said there was no forecast of security of supply problems, but described the price environment as challenging.

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Jorgensen said the EU had already paid an extra €100bn for energy this year without receiving any additional gas or oil. He said that figure showed how exposed European consumers and industries remain to global market swings. He also proposed delaying new methane-emissions rules by one year, saying the move would help ease pressure on energy markets.

The commissioner said the bloc's dependence on imported fossil fuels remained unsustainable. He argued that when prices rise on the global market, the impact is felt directly by citizens and businesses across Europe. He said the EU needed to reduce that dependence by replacing imported fuels with homegrown energy and cleaner electricity, and pointed to work already under way on electrification and grid connections.

The warning comes at a time when energy policy remains closely tied to wider geopolitical tensions. Europe has spent recent years trying to reduce its reliance on Russian energy after the war in Ukraine disrupted supply patterns and pushed governments to seek alternative sources. Jorgensen's remarks suggest that even as that shift continues, the bloc is still vulnerable to price shocks from conflicts far beyond its borders.

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The informal meeting took place at Dublin Castle, where ministers were discussing the next steps for the EU's energy agenda. The methane proposal is significant because methane rules are part of the bloc's wider effort to cut emissions from fossil fuels, but they can also affect costs and compliance for energy producers. By linking the delay to market pressure, the commissioner signalled that climate policy and energy affordability are being weighed together.

What remains unclear is how member states will respond to the proposed delay and whether the warning will lead to any immediate policy changes. It is also not yet clear how long prices may remain elevated or whether the wars cited by the commissioner will continue to affect European markets through the winter. The next focus will be on whether EU governments back the methane delay and whether further measures are taken to shield households and industry from higher costs.

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