South-east Australia braces for flooding and severe storms after very dry September
A major rain and storm system is intensifying across south-east Australia, with flooding possible over the next 48 hours. The heaviest rain is expected to affect northern and eastern Victoria, as well as the south-east corner of New South Wales. Melbourne has already recorded 20mm in one hour, after receiving just 18mm across the whole of September.
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The rainband is being fed by a stream of tropical moisture moving into a low-pressure system over the southern Murray Basin. The system is moving slowly, which is expected to keep moderate to heavy falls in place through Friday and into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are also forming near the leading edge of the rainband, and forecasters say they could become severe.
The immediate risks include flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and large hail, although the chance of damaging winds is described as lower than the risk of intense rainfall. South Australia has mostly seen rain ease back to showers, but some coastal areas, including Adelaide, could still receive another 10mm or more by Friday night. A flooded road in West Footscray after heavy rain on Thursday afternoon shows how quickly conditions can deteriorate in built-up areas.
The timing matters because the system is arriving after an unusually dry month, leaving some places more vulnerable to sudden heavy rain and runoff. In Melbourne, the contrast between the dry September total and the one-hour downpour underlines how concentrated the rainfall has been. For emergency planners and local councils, the main concern is that slow-moving weather can produce repeated bursts of rain over the same areas.
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The forecast also points to a wider spread of impacts as the low drifts towards Bass Strait on Saturday. That could bring rain back across southern Victoria and keep moderate to possibly heavy falls going across central and eastern New South Wales. Severe thunderstorms with flash flooding, gusty winds and hail are also possible on the NSW western slopes and ranges.
By Sunday, the low is expected to retreat into the Tasman Sea, although showers and storms may still affect Gippsland and south-east New South Wales. What remains unclear is how intense the heaviest rain bands will become and where the most severe thunderstorms will form. The next 48 hours will be key for flood warnings, transport disruption and any escalation in storm severity.
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