Middle East oil flows rebound to 92% of pre-war levels despite Strait of Hormuz restrictions

Oil flows from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels, even as Iran continues to restrict vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Data cited in the supplied material shows daily regional oil flow reached 92% of its pre-war baseline in the final week of September. The development points to a partial recovery in a route that was effectively closed seven months ago during the war involving Iran and Israel.

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The rebound has been driven by a mix of shipping workarounds and pipeline rerouting. About 40% of the region's oil exports in September bypassed the strait and moved through overland pipelines to ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, up from 17% before the war, according to the supplied material. Most of the oil now passing through the strait is also moving via a shuttle system of more than 60 large tankers transferring cargo between vessels.

The United States Navy has continued to assist ships in the area since at least mid-June, and the number of vessels helped in September was up by a third compared with August. The supplied material says the support is mainly air cover, including warnings and interception of threats from drones, missiles or boats. It also says ships using the southern route near Oman, rather than seeking permission to use Iran's northern route, continue to be targeted.

The recovery matters because the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. The supplied material says about one fifth of global oil and gas usually passes through the waterway, making any disruption a concern for markets well beyond the Middle East. Even with flows improving, analysts quoted in the material said the market does not trust the current status quo because of the risk of further Iranian escalation and possible changes in US policy.

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The picture is also shaped by the wider conflict that disrupted regional energy trade in the first place. The supplied material says Iran's oil exports have ground to a halt after a US naval blockade was reimposed in July, while commercial shipping has remained exposed to attack. September saw the highest number of successful Iranian attacks on commercial shipping since March, according to the conflict monitor cited in the report.

That suggests the security environment remains unstable even as total oil movement has recovered. For now, the main question is whether the current workaround system can hold. The supplied material says some experts doubt its sustainability if Iranian attacks intensify or if US policy changes.

It is also unclear whether the recent rise in US naval assistance will continue at the same pace, or whether shipping companies will keep relying on shuttle tankers and pipeline diversions if the risk level rises again.

#MiddleEastoil #StraitofHormuz #Iran #USNavy #shippingsecurity

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