Brazil presidential campaign closes as Lula and Bolsonaro camp claim victory ahead of first-round vote

Brazil's presidential campaign has closed with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the Bolsonaro camp both projecting confidence ahead of Sunday's first-round vote. Lula ended his re-election bid with a march through Sao Paulo, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro held a motorcycle caravan through towns in Sao Paulo state before a rally in Rio de Janeiro. The contest has tightened in the final stretch, with polls suggesting Lula's lead is narrowing and that neither candidate is likely to win outright.

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Lula, 80, told supporters that Sunday's vote would decide between "democracy and barbarism" and said he would defeat the far right. He also framed the election as a test of Brazil's sovereignty, warning against what he described as meddling by Washington. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, said he was convinced everything was in place for his side to win in the first round.

He is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. The campaign has been marked by strong foreign attention, particularly around comments from US President Donald Trump, who has said he is watching the election very closely. Lula's supporters have pointed to that interest as evidence of possible outside interference, while some Bolsonaro supporters have said they would welcome US pressure if it helped force change at home.

The issue has become a flashpoint in the final days of the race, adding to the political tension around the vote. The election matters because it is shaping up as a close test of Lula's political strength and the continuing influence of the Bolsonaro movement in Brazil. Lula won the 2022 election by less than two percentage points, and the latest polling suggests the margin may again be narrow.

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If no candidate wins outright on Sunday, the race would move to a run-off on October 25 between the two frontrunners. The campaign has also unfolded against scrutiny of the Bolsonaro camp over a film-funding scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing for Dark Horse, adding another layer of pressure around the family's political role.

The broader contest has therefore become not only a vote on leadership, but also a measure of how far the right remains able to mobilise after Jair Bolsonaro's defeat and conviction. What remains unclear is whether Lula's late momentum will be enough to secure an outright first-round victory or whether the race will go to a run-off. Polls released on Saturday suggested Lula was still ahead, but with a reduced margin.

The next key point to watch is the official result on Sunday and, if needed, the shape of the campaign for the October 25 second round.

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