Latvia's United List wins parliamentary election as populists gain ground

Latvia's centre-right United List has won the country's parliamentary election, according to preliminary results released after almost all votes were counted. The party led with 35.4% of the vote and secured 42 seats in the 100-seat parliament, a record for the post-independence era. The result points to a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course for the Baltic state, which borders Russia and has made security a central political issue.

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Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who took office in May, said the outcome was stronger than expected and in line with exit polls. He said the result showed that people wanted change and linked that to economic growth and the future of children in Latvia. He also said the country, as the external border of Europe, needed a strong economy and a strong border region.

Preliminary figures showed the party's current coalition would not survive in its present form, with one partner set to lose its seats and others performing below expectations. Populist parties also made gains in the vote, helped in part by support from Latvia's Russian-speaking minority. The campaign was shaped by fears over neighbouring Russia and by concerns about the cost of living.

Rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline were also prominent issues. Most parties expected to enter parliament support high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv, but the Sovereign Power party opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending. The result matters beyond domestic politics because Latvia is a member of both NATO and the European Union and has treated Russia as its main security threat since the invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago.

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The country has sharply increased defence spending in response to that threat. The election outcome therefore has implications for Latvia's approach to security, border policy and support for Ukraine, as well as for the shape of the next governing coalition. Latvia's political debate has been closely tied to the wider regional security environment, with parties competing over how to balance defence, economic pressure and social services.

The strong showing by United List suggests voters backed continuity on foreign policy, even as they signalled concern about everyday economic conditions. At the same time, the gains by populist parties indicate that cost-of-living grievances remain politically potent. The final coalition arrangement will depend on negotiations among parties that are expected to enter parliament.

What remains unclear is which parties will join the next government and how stable any coalition will be. It is also not yet clear how much influence the populist parties will have in parliament or whether the Sovereign Power party will be isolated by other groups. The next stage will be coalition talks, which are likely to determine how Latvia handles defence spending, support for Ukraine and domestic economic policy in the months ahead.

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