Iran oil transit speculation grows as exports through Hormuz stay elevated
A new report has added to speculation over how oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz despite persistent security risks. Provisional data from maritime tracking firm Kpler suggests crude exports from the wider Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The figures come as analysts continue to weigh whether the flow of tankers is being sustained by military escort, ship-to-ship transfers, or some form of payment to secure passage.
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The latest discussion was prompted by comments from Michelle Brohard, Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, who said some countries could be paying Iran for passage through the strait. She described the idea as a suspicion rather than a verified finding, and said she believed there could be a toll that gives ships safe passage. Brohard also suggested that some Gulf states may see the arrangement as preferable to relying on US escorts or risking a larger disruption if hostilities resume.
The claim has not been independently verified. The speculation matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, with a large share of global oil and gas exports traditionally moving through it. The row comes against a backdrop of elevated insurance costs, war-risk fears and repeated warnings about maritime security in the region.
Oil prices have remained high even as exports have risen, which analysts have linked to the cost of insuring tankers and the market's expectation that the conflict could flare again. The report also sits alongside broader pressure on Iran's economy and on regional shipping. Earlier comments from Iranian officials indicated that the country still claims control over the strait, while US officials have said Tehran's oil exports have been under strain.
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At the same time, the latest export data suggest that oil is still moving in significant volumes, even as the political and military risks around the route remain unresolved. That combination has made the market unusually sensitive to any sign of a change in the balance between deterrence, escort and coercion. What remains unclear is whether any payment arrangement exists, who would be involved, and how such a system would operate in practice.
The available evidence does not confirm the allegation, and the analyst who raised it framed it as a possibility rather than a conclusion. The next developments to watch are whether export volumes stay elevated, whether insurance costs ease, and whether any official response emerges from the states involved in the shipping route.
Iran's military said it still retains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, even as the country's currency fell to record lows and officials faced fresh pressure over shrinking oil revenues. The comments came on Monday amid a wider economic and security strain that has drawn in senior military figures, the oil ministry and US officials. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most sensitive shipping routes, and any disruption there can quickly affect energy markets and regional security.
Brigadier General Aziz Jafari, commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Joint Air Defence Headquarters, said that all movement in the strait was under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic. Hours before the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad was announced, he said in a video released by Iranian media that revenue from oil already sold would be collected and that the process would continue. His departure was officially attributed to family and personal matters, although speculation has grown that exports have fallen to a level that no longer meets state financial needs.
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Iran had not loaded any crude oil onto tankers in September, describing the situation as part of Washington's effort to cut off what he called the Iranian regime's most vital source of revenue. President Masoud Pezeshkian had already acknowledged in August that the blockade was disrupting exports, saying: "We used to sell oil; now we cannot sell it." The new acting oil minister has pledged to maximise production and continue exports through new strategies. Separately, ship-tracking company Kpler recorded crude exports from the region excluding Iran at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day in the final week of September, above the pre-war regional average of 18 million barrels per day.
The economic pressure is also visible in the currency market. The euro broke through 300,000 tomans on Iran's informal market, while the US dollar reached a record 270,000 tomans, more than double its level at the start of this year. The rial is Iran's official currency, and one toman equals ten rials.
The figures underline the scale of the country's financial strain at a time when oil exports remain central to state revenue and foreign exchange supply. The developments matter because they link three areas of pressure at once: strategic shipping, state finances and domestic political stability. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy flows, and any sign of tension there can raise concern well beyond Iran's borders.
At the same time, reduced oil sales weaken the government's ability to support the currency and fund public spending, increasing the risk of further economic instability. The row also comes against a backdrop of repeated warnings over maritime security. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since 2 October.
Major General Ali Abdollahi, chief of the armed forces general staff, also warned international organisations after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United Arab Emirates, saying that if Israel made another miscalculation and started another war, the armed forces' fury would shatter its hopes and dreams. Those remarks add to the sense of heightened regional tension around shipping lanes and military signalling. What remains unclear is how far oil exports have fallen in practice, how long the currency slide can continue, and whether the acting oil ministry can stabilise output.
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