Queensland warned of severe cyclone risk this season as warmer seas raise heatwave concerns

Queensland is likely to be hit by at least one severe cyclone this season, according to Australia's weather bureau. The annual severe weather outlook also warns of heatwaves and below-average rainfall in parts of the state. The forecast comes as the tropical cyclone season typically runs from November to April.

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The bureau said warmer sea temperatures off the Coral Sea are expected to help fuel stronger systems over the coming months. A severe cyclone is classified as category 3 or above. Forecaster Laura Boekel said there is an increased chance of a cyclone becoming severe because warmer sea surface temperatures provide more energy for storms to intensify.

The outlook also points to warmer than average temperatures across large parts of Queensland and below-average rainfall until December. Ms Boekel said that combination would increase the chance of heatwaves and make them more severe. The bureau said one to two systems typically cross the coast each season in Queensland, underlining the significance of any severe storm that develops.

The warning matters because Queensland is one of Australia's most cyclone-prone states and severe systems can bring damaging winds, flooding rain and disruption to transport, power and communities. The forecast also comes after a season that saw two category five systems, ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle and ex-Tropical Cyclone Maila, in the Coral Sea for the first time since records began in 1970. The bureau also noted that Tropical Cyclone Alfred caused damage along the Queensland coast in 2025.

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Officials are also watching the fire risk. Queensland Fire Department Commissioner Steve Smith said dry conditions had led to an "incredibly busy start" to the bushfire season, with activity up 20% on the same time last year. He said there had been almost 2,000 bushfire responses since 1 September and warned that four years of good rainfall had left an "incredible amount of fuel" in the landscape.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate until heavier rains arrive later in the year. What remains unclear is where any severe cyclone may form, whether it will cross the coast, and how long the dry and hot conditions will persist in different parts of the state. The bureau's outlook is seasonal rather than a storm-specific warning, so the immediate impact will depend on how weather patterns evolve in the coming weeks and months.

Residents and emergency services will be watching for changes in sea temperatures, rainfall and cyclone tracks as the season develops.

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