UK military spending should shift toward domestic defence, thinktank says

A new report has warned that the United Kingdom's armed forces are too heavily oriented toward overseas commitments and should place far greater emphasis on domestic defence. The analysis, published on 8 October, says the country's military is the most overseas-focused among European nations and argues that the government's planned rise in defence spending could deepen existing inefficiencies unless priorities change. It says the current approach reflects an outdated foreign policy centred on missions abroad.

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The report was produced by researchers at the Transition Security Project, which says almost a quarter of the defence budget was spent on commitments across five continents in 2024/25. On that basis, it estimated that just over £14bn went on overseas commitments, with about £2.8bn spent outside Europe. The study said this included bases and strategic hubs in places such as Cyprus, Kenya and Oman, and argued that the real figure is likely to be higher.

The government has committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, following a defence investment plan unveiled in July. The report says that, without a change in direction, the increase in funding could simply reinforce the same pattern of spending rather than strengthen home defence. It also notes that the planned rise would amount to a nominal doubling of the defence budget, from £70bn in 2026 to £151bn in 2035.

The findings come amid continuing debate over how Britain should balance global military commitments with domestic security needs. The report argues that overseas missions have often made the world less safe and questions whether they have made the UK safer. It says the country's current posture is shaped by a long-standing strategic culture that prioritises projection of power abroad, even as pressure grows to improve resilience at home.

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The study also places the issue in a wider historical context by pointing to the cost of past interventions. Since 2001, it says, the UK has spent more than £51bn in modern terms on military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. The report suggests that this record should prompt a reassessment of how future defence money is allocated, particularly as the budget is set to rise sharply over the next decade.

What remains unclear is whether ministers will alter the planned spending path or the balance between overseas operations and domestic defence. The report says the government's current defence investment plan still appears to assume ongoing commitments across several continents. The next stage of the debate is likely to focus on whether new funding is used to expand Britain's global reach or to strengthen capabilities at home.

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