Russia draft budget raises defence and security to record 44% of federal spending

Russia's parliament is due to begin examining a draft budget for 2027 to 2029 that would allocate a record 44% of federal spending to defence and security. The proposal comes as the Kremlin continues to prioritise military outlays during the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year. The State Duma is scheduled to start reviewing the draft on 22 October.

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The draft would give defence and security roughly twice the share assigned to social programmes, according to the figures in the budget plan. Military expenditure this year has already reached 17 trillion roubles, compared with 12.1 trillion roubles originally budgeted, underlining the rising cost of the conflict. President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won an absolute constitutional majority in September's parliamentary elections, making major changes to the draft unlikely before it passes.

At the same time, the Finance Ministry says the budget's top priority is to fulfil social obligations to citizens. Yet social policy spending is set to fall by 7% in 2027, from 7.1 trillion roubles to 6.65 trillion roubles. That category covers pensions, payments to veterans, maternity benefits and other support.

The government has said these payments will be indexed to inflation, but Russia's official inflation rate has been above 8% for much of the past two years, while independent economists estimate it is higher. The budget also highlights the strain that war spending is placing on Russia's wider public finances. Federal payments to servicemen and their families are included under national defence, where spending is expected to rise by about a quarter next year.

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The Kremlin has also announced a 10 trillion rouble children's budget over the next three years for maternity payments, child benefits and housing programmes, but the ratio of those funds to defence spending is one to five. That gap illustrates how heavily the state is still directing resources towards the military effort rather than civilian support. Pressure is not limited to the federal level.

Russia's regions also help fund war-related payments, and many are already running deficits, which has forced local authorities to trim civilian budgets. In late September, the Arkhangelsk region redirected more than 63 million roubles from social support to one-off war payments and death compensation. A few days earlier, the Tula region cut 54 million roubles from spending on foster children and low-income households.

These moves suggest the budgetary strain is being felt across different levels of government. What remains unclear is how much room lawmakers will have to alter the draft before it is approved, and how regional budgets will absorb further war-related costs. The coming debate in the State Duma will show whether the government can sustain this level of military spending while limiting pressure on households and social programmes.

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