Swinney says conditions are aligning for Scottish independence at SNP conference

John Swinney is set to tell the SNP conference in Aberdeen that the conditions are aligning for Scottish independence, in a speech that will renew pressure for another referendum after the May Holyrood election. The first minister is expected to argue that 2026 has been a turning point in Scotland's journey towards statehood. He will also tell party members that the political landscape is shifting in favour of the independence movement.

According to the prepared remarks, Swinney will say that "the stars are aligning" for independence and that "one by one, the stars are aligning in our favour". He is expected to point to support from first ministers in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast for their nations' right to self-determination. He will also say that if the SNP had lost the May Scottish Parliament election, the case for independence would have been set back for decades.

The SNP won a record fifth term in government at Holyrood in May, but it did not secure the overall majority Swinney had wanted as a route to forcing a second referendum against Westminster opposition. Even so, he is expected to tell supporters that there is "no turning back" and that the party is "making the weather". He will also argue that the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland's independence movement.

The speech comes at a sensitive moment in the wider constitutional debate across the UK. The nationalist first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland met in Cardiff last month and signed an agreement that is not legally binding but said no Westminster government had the right to block democracy. That meeting added to a broader push by devolved leaders to frame self-determination as a shared political issue rather than a purely Scottish one.

Swinney's remarks also follow a major speech in Scotland by the UK prime minister, who offered to work with him on giving more power to local communities and said he wanted to move beyond the old politics of conflict. That intervention underlines the competing strategies now in play: one side pressing for more devolution, the other renewing the case for independence. The conference setting gives Swinney a platform to sharpen that argument in front of his own party.

What remains unclear is whether the SNP can turn its conference message into a practical route to a referendum, given Westminster's continued opposition and the party's failure to win an outright majority in May. The next key test will be how the party translates this rhetoric into its post-election strategy and whether it can build enough political pressure to change the constitutional debate. For now, Swinney is signalling that the independence campaign is entering a more assertive phase.

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