Israel election battle over Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox kingmakers ahead of October 27 vote

Israel's election campaign is increasingly focused on the role of smaller parties that could decide who forms the next government after the October 27 vote. Arab-led parties Ra'am and the Joint List are being cast as possible kingmakers, with polls projecting them to win 13 seats together. That would make them potentially decisive in coalition talks in the 120-seat Knesset if neither of the main blocs secures a majority.

The immediate political fight has centred on accusations and counter-accusations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp and its rivals. Netanyahu has repeatedly attacked opponents over their ties to Ra'am and the Joint List, while major opposition figures have criticised reliance on ultra-Orthodox parties to sustain their own parliamentary strength. According to the supporting material, both the Netanyahu camp and most leaders of the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc have ruled out governing with parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel.

The projected seat total matters because it could leave both major blocs dependent on parties they publicly reject. Opinion polls have consistently shown Netanyahu's Likud and the far-right coalition it leads running neck-and-neck with the Zionist opposition bloc, with neither side on course for an outright majority. In that scenario, even a relatively small number of seats can determine whether a coalition can be assembled at all.

The issue also carries wider political significance because it touches on the long-running question of Arab participation in Israeli coalition politics. Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 20 percent of the population, and Ra'am made history in 2021 by becoming the first Arab party to enter an Israeli government. It joined a broad coalition that briefly removed Netanyahu from power, after its leader Mansour Abbas had previously been seen as open to negotiating with him.

That earlier episode remains relevant because it showed that coalition arithmetic can override public red lines. Abbas ultimately aligned with the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in order to advance measures he had campaigned for. The current campaign suggests that, despite the public rejection of such deals, post-election negotiations could again force parties to confront the same arithmetic if the vote produces another hung parliament.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are part of the same broader dynamic, even though the supporting material focuses more heavily on the Arab-led lists. The opposition has accused Netanyahu's side of depending on minority parties to preserve its power base, while Netanyahu's allies have tried to portray rivals as beholden to Arab-led lists. That exchange underlines how coalition politics in Israel often turns on the legitimacy of potential partners as much as on policy differences.

For now, the key question is whether the polling picture holds through election day and whether any bloc can improve its position enough to avoid dependence on smaller parties. It is also unclear whether the public rejection of coalition deals with Palestinian citizen parties will survive the pressure of post-election bargaining. What happens after October 27 will depend on the final seat count, the willingness of party leaders to compromise, and whether the same kingmaker role projected in the polls becomes a reality.

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