Vanuatu expects China police presence to fall over time after Australia deal

Vanuatu says it expects China's police presence in the country to reduce over time after signing the Nakamal Agreement with Australia. The statement marks a notable shift in the Pacific nation's security relationships and comes as Canberra seeks to deepen its role in regional policing and defence ties. The development is being watched closely because it touches on wider competition for influence in the Pacific.

The agreement was signed in June after months of negotiations, and Vanuatu's position was set out publicly on 19 October. Prime Minister Jotham Napat said the country is yet to approve an increase in Australian police officers, indicating that implementation is still at an early stage. China has maintained a small police training team in Vanuatu since 2023, and its embassy has also made substantial donations to the police force.

Those donations have included surveillance drones, motorcycles, patrol boats, uniforms, minibuses, riot gear and forensic laboratory equipment. The Chinese presence has been a source of concern for Australia, which believes Beijing is using police training to establish itself as a legitimate security partner in the Pacific. Vanuatu's internal affairs minister, Andrew Napuat, travelled to Beijing last month to renew policing cooperation with China, showing that the country is still balancing ties with both powers.

The issue matters because policing links in the Pacific have become part of a broader strategic contest. Australia has been working to strengthen security partnerships across the region, while China has expanded policing ties with several Pacific nations in recent years. Vanuatu's statement is significant because it is only the second time a Pacific nation has made an on-the-record commitment, even with a caveat, to reduce Beijing's police presence on the ground.

There is also recent precedent elsewhere in the region. Fiji's prime minister, Sitiveni Rabuka, said in 2024 that Chinese officers in his country's police force had been repatriated because the two countries had different legal systems. That comparison underlines how policing arrangements can become politically sensitive when they intersect with sovereignty, legal systems and foreign influence.

For Australia, the Nakamal Agreement appears to be part of a wider effort to secure a stronger foothold in Pacific security cooperation. For Vanuatu, the challenge is to manage relationships with both Canberra and Beijing while deciding how far to go in reshaping its policing partnerships. What remains unclear is how quickly China's presence will decline, whether Australia will approve more officers, and how the agreement will be implemented in practice.

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