IEA warns Europe enters winter with lowest gas reserves on record amid Iran war disruption
Europe is heading into winter with gas reserves at historically low levels and may face higher liquefied natural gas prices if the season turns cold, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned. Fatih Birol made the comments in Berlin, where he was speaking on the sidelines of an international conference. He said the disruption to global energy flows linked to the Iran war has left Europe more exposed than usual to further supply shocks.
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Birol said the region normally enters the colder months with much larger gas stocks, but current reserves are well below historical averages. He said Europe is competing for LNG with Asian buyers, who are also heavily dependent on supplies from the Middle East. He added that even if peace were restored in the Gulf immediately, the market would still face pressure in the months ahead.
The IEA chief said the Strait of Hormuz remains a key vulnerability because a significant share of LNG has traditionally moved through the waterway. According to the supplied material, nearly a tenth of Europe's LNG transited through the strait before the war, but attacks on vessels have reduced imports. The European Union's gas storage is reported to be about 72 percent full, compared with the usual 90 percent, leaving a shortfall that analysts say is equivalent to the energy needed to power 10 million to 12 million homes.
The warning matters because Europe relies on imported gas to generate electricity, support industry and heat homes during winter. Lower storage levels can make the market more sensitive to weather, shipping disruption and competition from other buyers. Birol said that if the winter is harsh, Europe could see higher natural gas prices, adding that the growing political nature of energy is increasing uncertainty for consumers and governments alike.
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The comments also underline how the conflict around Iran is feeding into wider energy-security concerns far beyond the region. The IEA, which advises wealthy member countries and coordinates emergency responses, has long treated the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint for global energy trade. Birol said he has often asked recruits what they would do if the strait shut down, reflecting the agency's longstanding concern about the route's strategic importance.
EU energy ministers are now reported to be considering whether households and businesses should be asked to ration consumption if conditions worsen. What remains unclear is how severe the winter will be, whether further shipping disruption will follow, and how quickly alternative supplies can be secured. The next few months will show whether Europe can avoid a sharper price shock or whether low storage levels turn into a broader energy squeeze.
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