UN secretary-general race enters final phase as UAE names new contender

The race to choose the next United Nations secretary-general has entered its final phase, with former Costa Rican vice president Rebeca Grynspan still holding a narrow lead after the latest informal Security Council straw poll. The contest has also been widened by the entry of Lana Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates minister of state, who announced her candidacy this week. The process is now moving toward a decision expected by the end of December, before the General Assembly confirms the appointment.

The straw poll held last week in the 15-member Security Council gave Grynspan a slim advantage over her closest rivals, Guyana's former foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Argentina's International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Rafael Grossi. According to the supplied material, the race was relaunched after two opposing votes, which allowed new candidates to enter. That change opened the door for Nusseibeh, whose nomination was presented as a fresh development in a contest already drawing unusual attention.

The winner must secure at least nine votes in the Security Council and avoid any opposition from the five permanent members: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia. The current secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, is due to be succeeded through this process, with the Security Council making its recommendation before the General Assembly gives formal approval. Other candidates mentioned in the field include former Ecuadorian foreign minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese president Macky Sall, former UN under-secretary-general Olara Otunnu of Uganda and Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki.

The contest matters because it will determine the next leader of the world body at a time when diplomacy, peace and security, development and human rights remain central pressures on the organisation. The emergence of a new candidate also adds to the significance of the race, which is being watched closely by member states because of the Security Council's decisive role. The possibility of a woman taking the post has also become a notable feature of the campaign, as no woman has ever served as UN secretary-general in the organisation's more than 80-year history.

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Nusseibeh's entry has been framed around her experience in and around the United Nations and her record in what the supplied material describes as quiet diplomacy. In launching her candidacy, she said she had seen first-hand what determined diplomacy can achieve, including countries with deep differences finding common ground and reaching agreement where it had seemed impossible. Her vision statement places peace and security at the centre, while also promising work on development, human rights and reform of the organisation around focus and results.

Grynspan remains the best-placed candidate in the current field, but the relaunch of the process means the final outcome is still open. The Security Council's informal polling is an important indicator, yet it is not the final decision. The balance of support among the permanent members will remain crucial, because any one of them can block a candidate.

The coming weeks are likely to be shaped by further campaigning and diplomatic positioning among the remaining contenders. What remains unclear is whether the new candidacy will alter the current balance or whether Grynspan will hold her lead through the final stages. The key question now is which candidate can assemble the required Security Council support before the end-of-December deadline and then secure General Assembly confirmation.

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