Israel election count points to deadlock as Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers

Partial results from Israel's election suggest that veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc may fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament. His Likud party is currently the largest single party, but the early count still points to a deadlock rather than a clear winner. Arab-led parties could hold the balance of power if coalition talks move in their direction.

The count remains incomplete, and analysts have cautioned that the early figures are skewed towards areas with strong right-wing support. Turnout was reported at more than 77%, indicating a high level of participation in a contest widely seen as decisive for the country's political direction. The result is still subject to change as more ballots are counted, including a large number of absentee votes.

Netanyahu's existing alliance with ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties appears to be just short of a majority, according to the partial results. His main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, is also said to be struggling to assemble a governing coalition without support from parties representing Israel's Arab minority. Exit polls have suggested no clear winner, with the two blocs running close to each other.

The outcome matters because Israel's fragmented political system often produces coalition governments, and the balance of power can shift quickly once negotiations begin. Arab Israelis, who often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and make up about one-fifth of the population, appeared to turn out in unprecedented numbers in this election. That raises the possibility that parties led by the Arab minority could become decisive in government formation, even though many Jewish opposition parties have said they would not work with them.

The vote has been framed by many Israelis as a make-or-break contest over the future of the country's most right-wing government. Critics have accused that government of stoking racism and hatred, while supporters have argued that it represents a clear mandate from Jewish voters. The election therefore carries significance beyond the immediate seat count, because it may shape domestic policy, coalition strategy and Israel's approach to wider regional issues.

The current picture also reflects the structure of Israel's parliamentary system, in which no single party usually wins an outright majority and coalition-building is essential. In that setting, smaller parties can become pivotal, especially when the leading blocs are closely matched. The present count suggests that this election could again force negotiations across ideological and communal lines, with the final outcome depending on how parties choose to align.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed supporters overnight and said they intended to form the next government. Netanyahu told supporters that the right-wing bloc had a decisive majority among Jewish voters, although he stopped short of declaring victory. Eisenkot also signalled confidence, but the partial results indicate that neither side has yet secured a clear path to power.

What remains unclear is whether the absentee ballots and remaining counts will alter the seat balance enough to produce a majority for either bloc. It is also not yet clear whether any party will be willing to rely on Arab-led lists in coalition talks. The final result may take another day or two to settle, and the next stage will be the political negotiations that follow the count.

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