US midterm early voting surges past 43 million as Texas turnout jumps

More than 43 million Americans have already cast ballots in the US midterm elections, with less than a week to go before voting day. The early turnout is running well ahead of recent cycles and could shape the battle for control of Congress over the next two years. Texas has emerged as the standout state in the early data, with participation far above its 2022 pace.

Data from the University of Florida Election Lab shows that between four and five million early votes have been cast each day, a rate described as much higher than in most previous elections. Prof Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database, said Texas had recorded the highest above-average turnout so far. He also said Hispanic communities were voting at a much higher rate than usual, while overall turnout appeared on track to outpace both 2020 and 2018.

In Texas, more than 5.8 million ballots have already been cast, according to the data cited in the reporting. McDonald said the state had already surpassed its 2022 total by around 1.75 million voters. The state is being watched closely because it is a key battleground that could help decide which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

The early figures also suggest a shift in the composition of the vote. In states that require voters to register a party affiliation, Democrats account for 44% of early ballots, Republicans for 31.2%, and voters with no party affiliation for 24.7%. The data does not show how those voters will ultimately cast their ballots, but it does indicate strong participation across several groups ahead of election day.

The turnout surge matters because the midterms will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years. That gives the election immediate implications for the legislative agenda in Washington and for the balance of power during the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency. The reporting also notes that in states where race is recorded at registration, early voting has increased among Hispanic and Black communities, while white turnout is broadly in line with 2022 levels.

What remains unclear is whether the early-voting pace will hold through the final days before the election and how it will translate into actual results. The data available so far does not reveal how individual voters will vote, only that participation is running ahead of previous midterm cycles. The final outcome will depend on turnout on election day as well as the geographic distribution of the early vote, especially in closely contested states such as Texas.

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