Bulgaria runoff exit polls put Iotova ahead amid Black Sea security concerns

Exit polls from Bulgaria's presidential runoff show acting president Iliana Iotova ahead of challenger Andrey Gyurov, with three polls putting her on about 51% against roughly 44% for her rival. If the result is confirmed when official counting is completed on Monday, Iotova would become Bulgaria's first elected female president. The presidency is largely ceremonial, but the result would still carry political significance in a country watching both domestic politics and regional security closely.

The vote took place on Sunday, with exit polls indicating turnout of about 27% to 29%, slightly higher than the first round last week, which had a record-low turnout of 23%. Bulgaria's official news agency reported the polling figures, while the final result remains pending. Iotova, who has argued for dialogue with Moscow and opposed military aid to Ukraine, is facing Gyurov, who is backed by the pro-Western opposition and has called for a firmer line against Russia.

The runoff has been overshadowed by drone attacks on ships off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, an issue that has sharpened attention on the country's security environment. The supporting material says 21 people remain missing after a series of attacks last month on commercial vessels, and that the incidents are suspected to be spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. Both candidates have condemned the attacks and called for a diplomatic end to the conflict, but they differ on how directly Russia should be blamed.

The election matters beyond the presidency because Bulgaria sits on NATO's eastern flank and has been pulled into wider debates over the war in Ukraine. The campaign has highlighted the country's split between those favouring closer alignment with Western partners and those arguing for a more cautious approach to Moscow. Gyurov criticised Iotova in a televised debate for not explicitly blaming Russia, while Iotova said peace could come only through negotiations.

Iotova, 61, took over as acting president in January after her longtime ally Rumen Radev resigned to run in and win a parliamentary election. The office does not control day-to-day government policy, but it does carry influence through its role in the armed forces, treaty signings, veto powers and ambassadorial appointments. If confirmed, her victory would mark a notable political milestone and could shape how Bulgaria presents itself on security and foreign policy issues.

What remains unclear is whether the official count will match the exit polls and whether turnout patterns will affect the final margin. The result is expected on Monday, and the next stage will be the certification of the vote. Attention will then turn to how Iotova, if confirmed, balances her stated preference for negotiations with Bulgaria's commitments to its European and NATO partners.

Exit polls from Bulgaria's presidential runoff suggest acting president Ilijana Yotova is ahead of challenger Andrey Gyurov. Initial projections put Yotova on about 52% of the vote, while Gyurov is trailing on around 45%. The result, if confirmed, would make her Bulgaria's first elected female head of state.

Yotova is the candidate of the ruling centre-left Progressive Bulgaria party, which has backed her campaign. Gyurov, a former interim prime minister, was supported by reformist pro-Western opposition parties. The vote took place on 1 November 2026, and the first projections were reported after polls closed in the country.

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The campaign was shaped by the war in Ukraine and by Bulgaria's position on NATO's eastern flank. Yotova argued for a negotiated peace with Russia and described herself as a "President of Peace". Gyurov called for closer alignment with Western partners and stronger support for Ukraine in response to Russia's war of aggression.

Observers said the contest was the first major test for Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Moscow-friendly Progressive Bulgaria party. The presidency in Bulgaria is largely ceremonial, but the office carries political weight. The head of state leads the armed forces, can veto legislation, signs international treaties and appoints ambassadors.

Direct election gives the president greater authority than the role would otherwise suggest, even though major policy decisions still require parliamentary approval. The runoff also comes against a wider backdrop of tension in the Black Sea region. The supporting material says drone attacks on merchant ships have become more frequent in the Bulgarian and Romanian economic zones in recent weeks.

That has added to the sense that the election is taking place in a more fragile security environment than in previous cycles. Official results were not included in the supporting material, so the final margin remains unconfirmed. It is also not clear from the exit polls whether turnout or regional voting patterns will alter the picture once counting is complete.

What happens next will depend on the certified result and on how Yotova, if confirmed, balances her stated approach to Russia with Bulgaria's commitments to its European and NATO partners.

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