EU defence readiness at risk despite record spending, leaked draft warns

The European Union's ambition to be militarily ready by 2030 is at risk, according to a leaked draft of the European Commission's work programme. The document says Europe faces growing pressure on its external borders and critical infrastructure, with hybrid threats singled out as a major concern. It is expected to be endorsed and published by the Commission on Wednesday, setting out priorities for 2027.

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The eight-page draft says there is unprecedented political will and a surge in defence spending, but argues that this has not yet produced forces that are deployable, sustainable and interoperable. It says the bloc must do more to strengthen resilience, preparedness and the ability to respond rapidly to crises. The warning echoes the European Defence Agency's first Annual Defence Readiness Report, which identified persistent gaps in military capability.

The draft comes as Europe is investing billions in defence, with spending reaching €418 billion in 2025. It also follows a reduction in the American military presence in Europe under a force posture review ordered by US President Donald Trump, including the withdrawal of strategic enablers. The Commission says the gap must be filled by developing Europe's own strategic enablers, a category that includes critical infrastructure and capabilities that help combat forces deploy and operate efficiently.

The issue matters because the EU is trying to turn higher defence budgets into practical military readiness at a time of heightened security concern. The document says Europe is facing its most perilous security environment since the Cold War. It also links the challenge to the need for stronger protection of infrastructure, faster crisis response and greater resilience across the bloc.

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The draft says Brussels is preparing proposals to help the 27 member states rearm by 2030, a deadline that some intelligence services have identified as a possible point at which Russia could test NATO. One proposal would create a new European Instrument for Strategic Enablers, covering support assets and force multipliers such as strategic transport, air-to-air refuelling, space and cyber defence. The Commission says this would be done in cooperation with member states.

The document also reflects a broader debate inside the EU over how far the bloc should go in building common defence capabilities alongside national forces. Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has argued that Europe needs its own strategic enablers to close the gap left by reduced US presence. What remains unclear is how quickly member states will agree on funding and implementation, and whether the Commission's proposals will be enough to meet the 2030 target.

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