A month after Yemen government offensive began, war of attrition takes hold

A month after Yemen's internationally recognised government launched a new offensive against Houthi fighters, the conflict appears to have settled into a war of attrition. The operation, announced on 5 October, was presented as an effort to retake territory held by the Houthis, including the capital, Sanaa. But the city has remained largely calm, apart from recurring air strikes, even as fighting continues in other parts of the country.

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The offensive, called Operation Dawn of Yemen, was launched by government forces backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition. According to the supporting report, the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, have suffered losses while also inflicting pain on government forces and Saudi Arabia. The report says there are no signs that either side is easing up, and analysts describe the campaign as a new phase in a long-running conflict.

Sanaa has been under Houthi control since late 2014, when the group seized the city in the early phase of Yemen's civil war. The immediate impact has been uneven across the country. In Sanaa, residents have seen less disruption than they feared when the offensive was announced, although air strikes have continued.

In other provinces, including Taiz and Lahij in southern Yemen, the Houthis have made territorial gains and fighting has not stopped. That contrast suggests the front lines remain fluid, with no clear sign of a decisive breakthrough by either side. The latest phase matters because it comes after more than a decade of conflict that has repeatedly shifted between offensives, local truces and periods of stalemate.

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A campaign aimed at retaking Sanaa would carry major military and political significance, given the city's role as the centre of Houthi power since 2014. It would also affect the Saudi Arabia-led coalition, which has been involved in the war for years and remains directly exposed to the conflict's spillover. Analysts quoted in the report say the Houthis have historically survived by adapting to strikes and using Yemen's difficult terrain, covert supply routes and concealment networks.

Turki al-Goblan, head of the Saudi Daimumah Center for Studies, said the current offensive has put pressure on what he described as three pillars of that strategy. He said those pillars include the fuel and supply system that keeps combat vehicles moving, the maritime areas around the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the western coast, and the group's wider ability to operate under pressure. The Bab al-Mandeb strait is a strategically important waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and any fighting affecting that area can have implications beyond Yemen.

Pressure there can affect maritime movement and the wider security environment around the western coast. The report also indicates that the Houthis' ability to sustain operations is being tested, even if they continue to hold ground in key areas. For civilians, the main concern remains the risk of renewed escalation near densely populated areas.

One resident of Sanaa said he feared the consequences of hostilities near or inside the city when the offensive was announced. A month later, that anxiety has eased somewhat because the capital has stayed relatively calm, but the broader conflict has not. The situation suggests that military pressure is continuing without producing a clear political resolution.