COP31 climate summit opens in Turkey amid tensions over finance and fossil fuels

Nearly 200 countries are gathering in Antalya for COP31, the latest round of UN climate negotiations, as expectations for a major breakthrough remain limited. The two-week summit runs from 9 to 20 November in the Mediterranean resort city, with more than 100,000 people expected to take part. Talks are opening against a backdrop of disputes over fossil fuels, climate finance and wider geopolitical tensions.

The summit is being held under an unusual arrangement after a dispute over who would host the conference was resolved. Turkey is presiding over COP31, while Australia is leading the negotiations. Australian Climate Minister Chris Bowen said reaching consensus among nearly 200 countries would not be easy, but added that cooperation remained essential.

Turkey's Environment Minister and COP31 President Murat Kurum said the conference would seek to turn past commitments into real results. Immediate expectations are muted, with tougher action on fossil fuels appearing unlikely. Developed countries facing budget pressures are reluctant to commit more money to help developing nations cope with climate impacts.

The talks are also taking place as an energy crisis and cost-of-living pressures, fuelled by the war in the Middle East, continue to affect the wider political climate around the summit. The meeting matters because it comes at a time when climate risks are intensifying and the international response remains divided. The summit follows deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

An exceptionally strong El Niño climate phenomenon is forecast to peak later this year, adding to the risk of extreme weather and possibly helping make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record. The United Nations warned in September that global temperatures were on course to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, crossing the most ambitious threshold in the Paris Agreement. That warning has sharpened pressure on governments to show progress, even if a sweeping deal now looks unlikely.

Paul Watkinson, France's former chief negotiator at climate summits, said this was not expected to be the conference that changes the world, but described it as an important intermediate meeting that still needs to deliver progress. Turkey is also promoting an action agenda alongside the formal negotiations, encouraging countries to support non-binding pledges on issues ranging from artificial intelligence to waste management. A central part of that agenda is an electrification drive aimed at raising the share of global energy demand met by electricity from about 20% today to 35% by 2035.

What remains unclear is how far countries will move on finance, fossil fuels and other contested issues before the summit ends later this month.

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