Global fossil fuel emissions projected to fall for first time since Covid, researchers say

Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall in 2026 for the first time since the Covid pandemic, according to research released as governments gather for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. The projected decline is modest, at 0.4%, but it marks a notable shift after years of steady growth. Researchers said the drop is being driven by faster renewable energy deployment and an oil price shock linked to the Iran war.

The Global Carbon Budget report says emissions from oil, gas and coal rose by an average of 0.9% a year over the past decade and reached a record high in 2025. The new projection suggests a slight reversal next year, although the researchers stressed that the change may not last. They said the fall would be the first annual decline since 2020, when the pandemic disrupted global economic activity, trade and transport.

The report links part of the expected decline to reduced oil consumption after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in crude prices. It also says the expansion of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles is contributing to the shift. Two thirds of the increase in global energy demand is now being met by solar and wind power and electric vehicles, according to the study.

The findings matter because fossil fuel emissions remain the main driver of climate change, and the report suggests that clean energy is beginning to displace some demand growth. At the same time, the researchers warned that a decline caused partly by geopolitical disruption is not a durable climate solution. Their assessment comes at a moment when negotiators at COP31 are under pressure to show that the energy transition can continue even when markets are shaken by conflict.

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The study was led by Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, and published in Earth System Science Data. Friedlingstein said a decline in fossil carbon dioxide emissions is encouraging, but argued that the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. Corinne Le Quere, a climate change science professor at the University of East Anglia, said emissions have tended to rebound after shocks such as Covid or the global financial crisis.

The researchers also said oil-related emissions are projected to drop 1.9% and gas emissions are set to fall 0.3%, although they described the oil decline as likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. What remains unclear is whether the 2026 fall will be sustained once oil tensions ease and markets stabilise. The key question for policymakers at COP31 is whether the current shift reflects a structural change in the global energy system or only a temporary reaction to crisis conditions.

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