EU spending on Russian Arctic LNG rises ahead of 2027 import ban

The European Union spent an estimated €8.7bn on Russian liquefied natural gas from the Arctic in the first ten months of 2026, according to an analysis of shipping data cited in the report. The figure comes as Brussels prepares to ban Russian LNG imports from 1 January 2027, under a move intended to reduce the bloc's energy dependence on Moscow. The latest numbers show that purchases continued to rise even as the deadline approached.

The analysis, carried out by Urgewald using data from energy intelligence firm Kpler, found that EU ports received 12.89 million tonnes of LNG from Russia's Yamal project between January and October. That was up 6.3% year on year and represented 81% of the project's recorded deliveries worldwide. The report said the EU received a Yamal cargo roughly every 1.7 days during the period, underlining the scale of the trade.

The spending estimate was 21% higher than the bloc's estimated bill for the whole of 2025, reflecting both higher volumes and more expensive gas. October deliveries fell 11% from September, but their estimated value still rose 2.6% to €839m as the European gas price benchmark climbed to €86.79 per megawatt hour. France was the main destination for October shipments, receiving 5.37 million tonnes, while Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal also took cargoes.

Belgium remained the largest individual destination over the first ten months, with 42 cargoes and about 3.1 million tonnes unloaded at Zeebrugge. The figures matter because they highlight the gap between the European Union's political commitment to cut reliance on Russian fossil fuels and the continued commercial flow of energy to Moscow. The planned ban on Russian LNG imports is meant to close one of the remaining major channels of trade, but the report suggests that demand has remained strong ahead of the deadline.

That makes the transition more than a diplomatic issue, because it also affects gas pricing, supply planning and the pace at which European buyers can switch contracts. The report also points to the continuing importance of the Yamal project, one of Russia's flagship Arctic gas developments. Europe remains its main customer, despite repeated pledges by EU leaders to end dependence on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

The data cited in the report show that the trade has not yet been wound down in practice, even as the legal framework for a ban is already in place. What remains unclear is how quickly buyers will adjust once the ban takes effect and whether alternative suppliers can fully replace the volumes now arriving from Russia. The report does not say how individual companies will respond, or whether the higher prices seen in October will persist into 2027.

The key point to watch is whether the final weeks before the ban bring a further surge in imports or a sharper slowdown as contracts are reworked.

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